Fitzgerald's Fire
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (16 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 28
Defender wins (American): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1145 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-07-04 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1159 | 25% | 2021-09-22 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1135 | 62% | 2020-10-22 | | Lost |
| 964 | 1023 | 42% | 2016-08-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2016-06-28 | | Lost |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-03-13 | | Lost |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-03-13 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1055 | 35% | 2014-01-13 | | Won |
| 1059 | 985 | 60% | 2011-08-20 | | Won |
| 896 | 1000 | 35% | 2011-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2011-01-20 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1015 | 47% | 2011-01-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2009-07-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2009-04-05 | | Won |
| 915 | 1008 | 37% | 2008-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1086 | 59% | | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1014 vs 1052.9 has a 44.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).