Going to New York!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42
Attacker wins (Italian): 17
Defender wins (American): 21
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (Italian): 2
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2025-09-25 | Won |
| 1038 | 955 | 62% | 2025-09-08 | Won |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2025-04-06 | Won |
| 1289 | 1097 | 75% | 2025-02-14 | Won |
| 1097 | 1289 | 25% | 2025-02-05 | Lost |
| 1289 | 1097 | 75% | 2025-02-01 | Won |
| 1097 | 970 | 68% | 2024-12-01 | Lost |
| 1172 | 917 | 81% | 2022-08-06 | Won |
| 980 | 970 | 51% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1139 | 50% | 2022-04-20 | Lost |
| 1097 | 879 | 78% | 2021-11-10 | Tied |
| 1002 | 937 | 59% | 2021-07-04 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1172 | 39% | 2021-06-03 | Lost |
| 890 | 1004 | 34% | 2021-05-31 | Lost |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-05-25 | Won |
| 945 | 925 | 53% | 2021-05-18 | Won |
| 964 | 982 | 47% | 2021-05-14 | Won |
| 1188 | 1035 | 71% | 2021-05-12 | Lost |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 982 | 55% | 2021-05-04 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1115 | 54% | 2020-12-02 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1020 | 1097 | 39% | 2020-06-13 | Won |
| 1431 | 945 | 94% | 2020-04-08 | Won |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2020-03-30 | Lost |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2020-03-30 | Lost |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1228 | 32% | 2019-06-20 | Lost |
| 972 | 1097 | 33% | 2017-12-27 | Won |
| 1205 | 1140 | 59% | 2016-08-20 | Lost |
| 900 | 879 | 53% | 2016-04-20 | Won |
| 879 | 900 | 47% | 2016-04-17 | Won |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2015-11-20 | Lost |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2015-11-20 | Lost |
| 1060 | 971 | 63% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-08-24 | Lost |
| 1342 | 1022 | 86% | 2013-06-25 | Won |
| 1038 | 1105 | 40% | 2013-01-24 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1022 | 52% | 2010-12-22 | Lost |
| 1004 | 991 | 52% | 2010-02-20 | Lost |
| 870 | 991 | 33% | 2008-09-16 | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1055.5 vs 1020.5 has a 55.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).