Second Crack at Caumont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 267 (58 on the archive and 209 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 141
Defender wins (German): 126
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 950 | 56% | 2025-06-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 930 | 57% | 2025-05-15 | Won |
| 1008 | 1243 | 21% | 2025-04-16 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1174 | 51% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 1383 | 1423 | 44% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1253 | 23% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1013 | 52% | 2023-08-21 | Won |
| 1041 | 780 | 82% | 2022-10-20 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1094 | 52% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 962 | 962 | 50% | 2022-06-12 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1038 | 74% | 2021-09-11 | Won |
| 967 | 1063 | 37% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1092 | 69% | 2021-01-11 | Won |
| 1018 | 919 | 64% | 2020-10-31 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1008 | 58% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1158 | 972 | 74% | 2020-05-06 | Won |
| 1092 | 1026 | 59% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1008 | 1198 | 25% | 2020-05-02 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1012 | 54% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
| 1026 | 998 | 54% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1253 | 1204 | 57% | 2018-05-13 | Won |
| 1081 | 1029 | 57% | 2018-05-12 | Won |
| 1158 | 972 | 74% | 2018-04-29 | Won |
| 980 | 1130 | 30% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 980 | 1130 | 30% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 968 | 942 | 54% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 917 | 78% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 880 | 1217 | 13% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1058 | 62% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 938 | 1158 | 22% | 2015-07-08 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-09-19 | Won |
| 1024 | 1035 | 48% | 2014-05-16 | Won |
| 1012 | 1084 | 40% | 2013-11-10 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1066 | 58% | 2013-08-15 | Lost |
| 878 | 782 | 63% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1071 | 969 | 64% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 936 | 1051 | 34% | 2012-06-30 | Won |
| 1012 | 1046 | 45% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1117 | 56% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 1111 | 986 | 67% | 2011-06-24 | Won |
| 1154 | 1228 | 40% | 2011-06-17 | Lost |
| 904 | 1009 | 35% | 2009-12-11 | Lost |
| 950 | 893 | 58% | 2009-10-24 | Won |
| 997 | 968 | 54% | 2009-04-22 | Won |
| 1075 | 1101 | 46% | 2009-04-03 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2009-03-18 | Lost |
| 966 | 1007 | 44% | 2009-02-28 | Won |
| 1037 | 1098 | 41% | 2009-02-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1015 | 77% | 2009-02-06 | Won |
| 1036 | 982 | 58% | 2009-01-13 | Won |
| 1173 | 1234 | 41% | 2009-01-03 | Won |
| 1136 | 1036 | 64% | 2008-10-28 | Won |
| 1243 | 1068 | 73% | 2008-08-12 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2008-07-14 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1032 | 62% | | Lost |
| 963 | 1032 | 40% | | Lost |
Attacking (31 wins) average ELOs: 1061.6 vs 1046.4 has a 52.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).