First Cristot
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 175 (40 on the archive and 136 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 92
Defender wins (German (SS)): 82
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (British): 0
Defender wins (German (SS)): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2024-09-16 | D | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2024-06-23 | | Won |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2023-02-27 | | Won |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2022-12-18 | | Won |
| 1198 | 998 | 76% | 2020-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 955 | 76% | 2020-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2018-04-10 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1218 | 32% | 2018-04-07 | | Lost |
| 968 | 1035 | 40% | 2017-10-07 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1133 | 16% | 2017-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1023 | 964 | 58% | 2016-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2016-04-28 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1079 | 43% | 2016-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2015-08-10 | | Won |
| 1016 | 908 | 65% | 2015-06-06 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2015-03-06 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1000 | 56% | 2015-02-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1044 | 44% | 2015-02-10 | | Won |
| 939 | 1258 | 14% | 2014-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2013-04-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2012-12-08 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1108 | 56% | 2012-09-25 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 967 | 68% | 2012-07-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2012-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2011-03-12 | | Lost |
| 856 | 988 | 32% | 2011-02-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 2011-01-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 915 | 62% | 2009-07-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2009-04-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2009-04-18 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2009-04-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2009-02-07 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2009-01-07 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2008-12-05 | | Won |
| 1008 | 992 | 52% | 2008-11-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2008-10-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1090 | 37% | 2008-10-09 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1134 | 64% | 2008-09-05 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2008-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1218 | 32% | | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1020.7 vs 1057.7 has a 44.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).