The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 114 (36 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 53
Defender wins (Chinese): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1039 | 1039 | 50% | 2025-09-11 | Won |
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 976 | 986 | 49% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1085 | 1085 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 964 | 980 | 48% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1130 | 980 | 70% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 1065 | 1038 | 54% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1204 | 53% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1338 | 42% | 2016-06-09 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1174 | 51% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1423 | 1253 | 73% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1061 | 1072 | 48% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1096 | 53% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1147 | 55% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 945 | 921 | 53% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 936 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1072 | 1132 | 41% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 936 | 1171 | 21% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1303 | 22% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 1024 | 927 | 64% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1052 | 1041 | 52% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 1118 | 1283 | 28% | 2010-05-28 | Lost |
| 927 | 1024 | 36% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1171 | 36% | 2009-09-25 | Lost |
| 1236 | 1000 | 80% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1236 | 1068 | 72% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1215 | 25% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1173 | 25% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 913 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1068 | 1051 | 52% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 1154 | 48% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1032 | 1118 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1076.5 vs 1087.9 has a 48.36% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).