The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (Chinese): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 2025-09-11 | Won |
| 997 | 952 | 56% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 997 | 952 | 56% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 952 | 997 | 44% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 964 | 986 | 47% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1113 | 986 | 68% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 1053 | 1037 | 52% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1225 | 1177 | 57% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1143 | 51% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1419 | 1274 | 70% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1061 | 1072 | 48% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1090 | 55% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1146 | 51% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 992 | 920 | 60% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 936 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 936 | 1171 | 21% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1266 | 24% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 1029 | 927 | 64% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1052 | 1085 | 45% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 927 | 1029 | 36% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1171 | 34% | 2009-09-25 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1000 | 74% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1178 | 1053 | 67% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1213 | 27% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1174 | 25% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 913 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1053 | 1053 | 50% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1138 | 1153 | 48% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1083 | 1118 | 45% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1062.9 vs 1070.5 has a 48.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).