The Bears of St. Denis
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (9 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 22
Defender wins (German): 13
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (British): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1186 | 1179 | 51% | 2026-09-01 | D | Lost |
| 1182 | 1000 | 74% | 2026-08-21 | | Won |
| 1021 | 1078 | 42% | 2026-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1201 | 1039 | 72% | 2026-08-17 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2021-08-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2019-07-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2009-10-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2009-06-04 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2008-09-29 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1087.3 vs 1066.4 has a 53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).