Red Don
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 12
Defender wins (Italian): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1022 | 1022 | 50% | 2025-08-31 | Won |
| 1198 | 780 | 92% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1105 | 980 | 67% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 967 | 1063 | 37% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1029 | 54% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 976 | 993 | 48% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
| 1015 | 1253 | 20% | 2021-02-08 | Won |
| 945 | 984 | 44% | 2020-12-31 | Won |
| 979 | 1253 | 17% | 2019-04-24 | Lost |
| 1068 | 987 | 61% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1078 | 47% | 2014-12-05 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1024 | 52% | 2014-05-31 | Won |
| 980 | 975 | 51% | 2013-03-23 | Lost |
| 1071 | 986 | 62% | 2012-06-27 | Lost |
| 1068 | 903 | 72% | 2011-06-10 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1013 | 79% | 2011-06-09 | Lost |
| 1117 | 980 | 69% | 2010-05-30 | Lost |
| 933 | 945 | 48% | 2010-05-08 | Won |
| 950 | 963 | 48% | 2009-12-01 | Won |
| 994 | 927 | 60% | 2007-09-29 | Won |
| 1002 | 1123 | 33% | 2007-08-26 | Won |
| 1018 | 1032 | 48% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1036.5 vs 1013.3 has a 53.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).