Winter of Their Discontent
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 6
Defender wins (Italian / German): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 994 | 1108 | 34% | 2024-02-18 | Won |
| 917 | 917 | 50% | 2022-08-23 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1082 | 79% | 2022-07-13 | Lost |
| 936 | 908 | 54% | 2021-12-06 | Lost |
| 958 | 1048 | 37% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2020-11-04 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1093 | 43% | 2020-05-22 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2018-04-09 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1011 | 85% | 2016-09-24 | Won |
| 1116 | 1101 | 52% | 2015-08-28 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1276 | 19% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1116 | 51% | 2014-05-29 | Lost |
| 944 | 983 | 44% | 2013-01-09 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1400 | 16% | 2009-08-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1133 | 63% | 2008-10-15 | Won |
| 1010 | 901 | 65% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1116 | 1141 | 46% | 2008-03-14 | Won |
| 1011 | 1227 | 22% | 2008-03-07 | Lost |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1110 | 43% | 2007-07-01 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1009 | 63% | 2006-01-12 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1082 | 44% | 2005-12-31 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1062.9 vs 1070.5 has a 48.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).