Winter of Their Discontent
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (Russian): 7
Defender wins (Italian / German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2024-02-18 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2022-08-23 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1156 | 66% | 2022-07-13 | Lost |
| 1019 | 966 | 58% | 2021-12-06 | Lost |
| 958 | 1012 | 42% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2020-11-04 | Lost |
| 1071 | 932 | 69% | 2020-05-22 | Lost |
| 1178 | 986 | 75% | 2018-04-09 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1011 | 82% | 2016-09-24 | Won |
| 1138 | 1214 | 39% | 2015-08-28 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1150 | 33% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1123 | 45% | 2014-05-29 | Lost |
| 1038 | 984 | 58% | 2013-01-09 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1419 | 15% | 2009-08-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1133 | 63% | 2008-10-15 | Won |
| 1009 | 903 | 65% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1138 | 1143 | 49% | 2008-03-14 | Won |
| 982 | 1244 | 18% | 2008-03-07 | Lost |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1098 | 47% | 2007-07-01 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1011 | 65% | 2006-01-12 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1058 | 48% | 2005-12-31 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1077.2 vs 1075.1 has a 50.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).