Road Kill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 91 (21 on the archive and 70 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 45
Defender wins (German): 44
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1123 | 1158 | 45% | 2025-01-15 | Won |
| 950 | 950 | 50% | 2024-06-03 | Won |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2022-09-04 | Won |
| 1029 | 1001 | 54% | 2022-07-15 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1190 | 36% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1177 | 38% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-11-20 | Tied |
| 986 | 1113 | 32% | 2021-11-20 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1032 | 51% | 2020-05-11 | Won |
| 992 | 1071 | 39% | 2018-05-11 | Lost |
| 1020 | 892 | 68% | 2018-03-16 | Won |
| 959 | 1143 | 26% | 2018-03-16 | Lost |
| 982 | 941 | 56% | 2017-02-28 | Won |
| 1274 | 1068 | 77% | 2017-01-31 | Won |
| 969 | 1058 | 37% | 2014-10-10 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1150 | 35% | 2014-07-27 | Lost |
| 918 | 1086 | 28% | 2011-03-06 | Lost |
| 903 | 901 | 50% | 2009-10-14 | Won |
| 1178 | 1068 | 65% | 2009-04-28 | Won |
| 986 | 1002 | 48% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 986 | 1095 | 35% | 2008-11-30 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1024.1 vs 1057.8 has a 45.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).