The Prelude to Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 89 (13 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 38
Defender wins (German): 50
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2024-12-31 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2024-07-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2024-01-17 | Won |
| 1219 | 964 | 81% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1070 | 42% | 2012-05-28 | Won |
| 914 | 1099 | 26% | 2012-03-03 | Lost |
| 1151 | 963 | 75% | 2009-10-18 | Won |
| 1041 | 1075 | 45% | 2009-02-18 | Lost |
| 947 | 920 | 54% | 2009-01-16 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1014 | 57% | 2007-02-18 | Won |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 2007-02-14 | Won |
| 1025 | 913 | 66% | 2006-09-06 | Won |
| 1091 | 1103 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1052 vs 1026.2 has a 53.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).