The Prelude to Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (12 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 37
Defender wins (German): 50
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-07-07 | Lost |
| 1013 | 969 | 56% | 2024-01-17 | Won |
| 1218 | 964 | 81% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1070 | 41% | 2012-05-28 | Won |
| 965 | 1099 | 32% | 2012-03-03 | Lost |
| 1150 | 964 | 74% | 2009-10-18 | Won |
| 1126 | 1020 | 65% | 2009-02-18 | Lost |
| 994 | 920 | 60% | 2009-01-16 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1038 | 50% | 2007-02-18 | Won |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2007-02-14 | Won |
| 1025 | 913 | 66% | 2006-09-06 | Won |
| 1098 | 1178 | 39% | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1068.6 vs 1026.6 has a 56.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).