Marders not Martyrs
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 221 (54 on the archive and 167 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 106
Defender wins (German): 114
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1114 | 959 | 71% | 2026-04-26 | Won |
| 1069 | 1114 | 44% | 2026-04-26 | Lost |
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2024-09-08 | Won |
| 932 | 1037 | 35% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1231 | 21% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2023-10-29 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1128 | 60% | 2023-04-08 | Won |
| 1225 | 900 | 87% | 2023-02-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 925 | 95% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-19 | Lost |
| 944 | 1164 | 22% | 2022-03-11 | Lost |
| 1102 | 899 | 76% | 2021-08-09 | Lost |
| 950 | 1083 | 32% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1058 | 1066 | 49% | 2020-04-07 | Won |
| 1013 | 1002 | 52% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1213 | 38% | 2019-07-06 | Won |
| 960 | 964 | 49% | 2016-12-31 | Lost |
| 999 | 1060 | 41% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 999 | 1060 | 41% | 2016-06-02 | Lost |
| 999 | 1060 | 41% | 2016-01-15 | Lost |
| 1060 | 999 | 59% | 2016-01-12 | Lost |
| 1038 | 984 | 58% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 1038 | 984 | 58% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 923 | 984 | 41% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 1129 | 982 | 70% | 2014-05-10 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1038 | 63% | 2013-01-08 | Won |
| 1131 | 1038 | 63% | 2013-01-07 | Won |
| 1060 | 1031 | 54% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2012-08-15 | Won |
| 1003 | 994 | 51% | 2012-01-04 | Won |
| 1108 | 1026 | 62% | 2011-08-01 | Won |
| 940 | 885 | 58% | 2011-06-20 | Won |
| 907 | 950 | 44% | 2010-09-07 | Lost |
| 953 | 991 | 45% | 2010-08-23 | Lost |
| 906 | 916 | 49% | 2010-08-15 | Won |
| 996 | 1107 | 35% | 2010-06-13 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-03-20 | Tied |
| 982 | 1013 | 46% | 2008-09-02 | Won |
| 1107 | 960 | 70% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 984 | 1132 | 30% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 1000 | 1230 | 21% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 1180 | 1233 | 42% | 2007-10-17 | Lost |
| 952 | 1107 | 29% | 2007-09-18 | Won |
| 1083 | 1208 | 33% | 2007-06-20 | Won |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 2007-02-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 1185 | 30% | 2006-12-02 | Won |
| 1054 | 1099 | 44% | 2006-11-24 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2006-11-14 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2006-11-14 | Won |
| 1091 | 1036 | 58% | 2006-09-30 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1044 | 44% | 2006-09-15 | Won |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2006-09-07 | Lost |
| 969 | 1031 | 41% | 2006-09-05 | Won |
| 892 | 1034 | 31% | 2006-08-23 | Won |
Attacking (32 wins) average ELOs: 1035.4 vs 1054.2 has a 47.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).