Baking Bread
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 138 (58 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 74
Defender wins (Russian): 61
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1014 | 1023 | 49% | 2024-09-23 | Won |
| 1036 | 1036 | 50% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2024-02-03 | Lost |
| 1221 | 1246 | 46% | 2023-12-01 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1058 | 50% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2022-05-10 | Won |
| 1053 | 966 | 62% | 2021-10-29 | Won |
| 977 | 915 | 59% | 2021-09-05 | Won |
| 1034 | 996 | 55% | 2021-07-13 | Won |
| 1038 | 1030 | 51% | 2021-02-07 | Tied |
| 964 | 998 | 45% | 2021-01-27 | Won |
| 1158 | 996 | 72% | 2020-12-27 | Won |
| 1125 | 996 | 68% | 2020-11-30 | Lost |
| 977 | 1078 | 36% | 2020-08-27 | Won |
| 1048 | 1053 | 49% | 2020-06-30 | Won |
| 938 | 1048 | 35% | 2020-03-31 | Won |
| 959 | 1046 | 38% | 2019-12-29 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1110 | 58% | 2019-12-11 | Won |
| 1192 | 1014 | 74% | 2019-12-03 | Won |
| 1269 | 977 | 84% | 2019-10-20 | Won |
| 989 | 1014 | 46% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 1046 | 934 | 66% | 2018-06-03 | Won |
| 911 | 1046 | 31% | 2017-10-28 | Lost |
| 933 | 1046 | 34% | 2017-10-19 | Tied |
| 1116 | 955 | 72% | 2017-09-22 | Won |
| 926 | 892 | 55% | 2017-07-23 | Won |
| 1014 | 881 | 68% | 2016-09-04 | Tied |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2015-10-06 | Lost |
| 847 | 929 | 38% | 2015-07-04 | Lost |
| 1023 | 938 | 62% | 2015-03-22 | Won |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2014-10-24 | Won |
| 1209 | 1209 | 50% | 2014-07-05 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1209 | 50% | 2014-04-26 | Lost |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-03-27 | Won |
| 1014 | 1053 | 44% | 2013-12-21 | Lost |
| 960 | 951 | 51% | 2012-09-27 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1215 | 30% | 2012-06-23 | Lost |
| 938 | 1014 | 39% | 2012-03-01 | Won |
| 1047 | 1056 | 49% | 2011-11-20 | Won |
| 1037 | 1141 | 35% | 2011-06-04 | Lost |
| 985 | 943 | 56% | 2011-02-25 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 944 | 983 | 44% | 2010-11-17 | Won |
| 917 | 1045 | 32% | 2009-11-18 | Lost |
| 917 | 1045 | 32% | 2009-11-18 | Lost |
| 959 | 1215 | 19% | 2009-04-29 | Won |
| 1073 | 1014 | 58% | 2009-02-11 | Lost |
| 1014 | 992 | 53% | 2009-01-17 | Lost |
| 943 | 1042 | 36% | 2009-01-03 | Lost |
| 977 | 931 | 57% | 2008-10-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1012 | 49% | 2008-07-06 | Lost |
| 1074 | 901 | 73% | 2007-10-25 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-03-04 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-03-04 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-02-19 | Won |
| 1001 | 937 | 59% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2007-01-21 | Won |
| 984 | 1094 | 35% | 2006-08-15 | Lost |
Attacking (32 wins) average ELOs: 1024.4 vs 1020.8 has a 50.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).