The Badger's Breath
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 153 (32 on the archive and 121 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 76
Defender wins (Canadian): 77
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 919 | 1214 | 15% | 2026-09-12 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1145 | 30% | 2026-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1200 | 24% | 2026-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 991 | 51% | 2026-09-11 | | Won |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2026-08-26 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1068 | 44% | 2026-08-25 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1035 | 41% | 2024-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2024-03-25 | | Won |
| 989 | 1156 | 28% | 2024-01-26 | | Won |
| 950 | 963 | 48% | 2024-01-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2022-06-03 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-06-03 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-11-20 | | Won |
| 1258 | 732 | 95% | 2020-06-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 907 | 63% | 2012-04-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2011-06-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2011-06-03 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 944 | 76% | 2010-09-24 | | Won |
| 1126 | 977 | 70% | 2010-08-01 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1167 | 29% | 2009-02-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2008-08-01 | | Won |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2008-03-15 | | Won |
| 969 | 1035 | 41% | 2007-06-26 | | Lost |
| 960 | 996 | 45% | 2007-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2007-01-27 | | Won |
| 1156 | 982 | 73% | 2007-01-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2007-01-27 | | Won |
| 1269 | 1035 | 79% | 2007-01-23 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2006-06-23 | | Won |
| 1209 | 1037 | 73% | 2005-12-04 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2005-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1214 | 1052 | 72% | 2005-10-27 | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1051.8 vs 1054.8 has a 49.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).