The Badger's Breath
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 146 (26 on the archive and 120 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 74
Defender wins (Canadian): 72
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 970 | 1035 | 41% | 2024-04-26 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1060 | 46% | 2024-03-25 | Won |
| 989 | 1173 | 26% | 2024-01-26 | Won |
| 948 | 963 | 48% | 2024-01-26 | Won |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2022-06-03 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-06-03 | Won |
| 1063 | 1068 | 49% | 2021-11-20 | Won |
| 1256 | 756 | 95% | 2020-06-10 | Won |
| 1009 | 927 | 62% | 2012-04-27 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1253 | 24% | 2011-06-03 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1423 | 12% | 2011-06-03 | Lost |
| 1140 | 963 | 73% | 2010-09-24 | Won |
| 1096 | 977 | 66% | 2010-08-01 | Won |
| 1015 | 1105 | 37% | 2009-02-16 | Lost |
| 910 | 1174 | 18% | 2008-08-01 | Won |
| 1174 | 1041 | 68% | 2008-03-15 | Won |
| 969 | 1036 | 40% | 2007-06-26 | Lost |
| 960 | 950 | 51% | 2007-03-09 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1077 | 44% | 2007-01-27 | Won |
| 1173 | 982 | 75% | 2007-01-27 | Won |
| 1234 | 1068 | 72% | 2007-01-27 | Won |
| 1269 | 1036 | 79% | 2007-01-23 | Won |
| 1224 | 1119 | 65% | 2006-06-23 | Won |
| 1209 | 1041 | 72% | 2005-12-04 | Lost |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2005-11-01 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1051 | 75% | 2005-10-27 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1067.4 vs 1053.5 has a 52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).