The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 236 (42 on the archive and 194 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 103
Defender wins (British): 133
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2025-10-31 | | Won |
| 995 | 1075 | 39% | 2025-09-10 | | Won |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2025-07-29 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2025-02-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2025-01-10 | | Won |
| 1037 | 982 | 58% | 2024-06-14 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1018 | 52% | 2022-08-05 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 1127 | 56% | 2022-06-18 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 1159 | 52% | 2022-06-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1258 | 18% | 2021-02-01 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1258 | 17% | 2021-02-01 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2018-08-17 | | Won |
| 907 | 1085 | 26% | 2018-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2016-10-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2016-01-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2014-12-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2014-10-11 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1126 | 49% | 2014-07-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2014-04-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2014-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2013-12-08 | | Lost |
| 1155 | 1071 | 62% | 2013-10-19 | | Lost |
| 951 | 987 | 45% | 2013-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1087 | 905 | 74% | 2010-03-17 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1169 | 31% | 2010-02-26 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 939 | 70% | 2009-08-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2008-05-18 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1167 | 46% | 2008-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1021 | 47% | 2007-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1021 | 47% | 2007-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1097 | 67% | 2006-09-09 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1219 | 20% | 2006-03-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2006-03-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2006-02-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2006-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2005-11-20 | | Lost |
| 1214 | 1031 | 74% | 2005-07-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2005-07-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2005-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1209 | 27% | 2005-05-14 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2005-04-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1040.7 vs 1112.1 has a 39.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).