The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 223 (30 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 98
Defender wins (British): 125
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 989 | 50% | 2025-01-10 | Won |
| 1055 | 986 | 60% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 1084 | 1018 | 59% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1162 | 64% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1241 | 53% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1266 | 32% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 973 | 1266 | 16% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2018-08-17 | Won |
| 885 | 1199 | 14% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1064 | 52% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 993 | 1158 | 28% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-12-10 | Lost |
| 988 | 1223 | 21% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1151 | 1150 | 50% | 2014-07-01 | Won |
| 1008 | 1099 | 37% | 2014-03-21 | Won |
| 945 | 1080 | 31% | 2013-12-08 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1066 | 62% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 1003 | 43% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1060 | 901 | 71% | 2010-03-17 | Won |
| 1125 | 939 | 74% | 2009-08-01 | Won |
| 1226 | 1412 | 26% | 2008-05-18 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1073 | 59% | 2008-03-08 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1310 | 13% | 2006-03-24 | Won |
| 940 | 1043 | 36% | 2006-03-17 | Lost |
| 1285 | 1310 | 46% | 2006-01-30 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1003 | 72% | 2005-07-27 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1196 | 40% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1087.1 vs 1114.5 has a 46.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).