The Chernichivo Shuffle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (18 on the archive and 70 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 48
Defender wins (German (SS)): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2023-08-12 | | Won |
| 966 | 956 | 51% | 2023-08-12 | | Won |
| 1073 | 1159 | 38% | 2023-05-08 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2023-04-24 | | Won |
| 1435 | 973 | 93% | 2021-12-19 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1120 | 37% | 2021-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2020-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1258 | 20% | 2018-06-18 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1219 | 28% | 2017-09-07 | | Won |
| 1145 | 1147 | 50% | 2016-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2009-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1214 | 23% | 2007-10-27 | | Won |
| 1214 | 1000 | 77% | 2007-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2007-01-29 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1064 | 62% | 2006-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1209 | 1037 | 73% | 2006-04-22 | | Won |
| 1317 | 1156 | 72% | 2005-08-09 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1343 | 16% | 2004-12-04 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1109.6 vs 1089.4 has a 52.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).