The Chernichivo Shuffle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (18 on the archive and 70 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 48
Defender wins (German (SS)): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2023-08-12 | | Won |
| 981 | 956 | 54% | 2023-08-12 | | Won |
| 1092 | 1150 | 42% | 2023-05-08 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2023-04-24 | | Won |
| 1435 | 973 | 93% | 2021-12-19 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1120 | 37% | 2021-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2020-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1289 | 17% | 2018-06-18 | | Won |
| 1041 | 1219 | 26% | 2017-09-07 | | Won |
| 1145 | 1133 | 52% | 2016-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2009-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1153 | 29% | 2007-10-27 | | Won |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2007-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2007-01-29 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1040 | 65% | 2006-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1209 | 991 | 78% | 2006-04-22 | | Won |
| 1310 | 1185 | 67% | 2005-08-09 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1343 | 16% | 2004-12-04 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1105.8 vs 1084.1 has a 53.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).