The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 189 (21 on the archive and 168 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 73
Defender wins (German): 116
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1073 | 1131 | 42% | 2022-03-26 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1139 | 61% | 2018-12-30 | | Won |
| 972 | 1062 | 37% | 2015-05-10 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1126 | 27% | 2014-03-05 | | Lost |
| 997 | 1242 | 20% | 2012-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2011-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 917 | 62% | 2010-01-28 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2010-01-24 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1058 | 46% | 2007-03-05 | | Won |
| 1035 | 969 | 59% | 2007-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1034 | 952 | 62% | 2006-09-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2004-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2004-12-21 | | Lost |
| 1169 | 1000 | 73% | 2004-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2004-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 991 | 51% | 2000-08-01 | | Won |
| 1150 | 940 | 77% | 2000-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1092 | 45% | 1998-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 1997-04-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 1997-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1018 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1057.1 vs 1024.4 has a 54.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).