Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 59 (17 on the archive and 42 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 26
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 927 | 1033 | 35% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 994 | 48% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 1083 | 1053 | 54% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 995 | 1067 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1032 | 1069 | 45% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1068 | 80% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1098 | 1113 | 48% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 981 | 1098 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 927 | 1082 | 29% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1120 | 51% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 994 | 1069 | 39% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1084 | 1000 | 62% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1147 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1119 | 1148 | 46% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1141 | 978 | 72% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1063.5 vs 1064.9 has a 49.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).