Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (23 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1182 | 964 | 78% | 2025-09-24 | Won |
| 884 | 1033 | 30% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 995 | 1071 | 39% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1033 | 1003 | 54% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1234 | 1099 | 69% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1052 | 1144 | 37% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1101 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 884 | 1072 | 25% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1121 | 60% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 992 | 1003 | 48% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1017 | 56% | 2008-07-09 | Won |
| 1141 | 1089 | 57% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 1062 | 1347 | 16% | 2006-04-14 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1148 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1159 | 1122 | 55% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1026 | 1062 | 45% | 2005-10-21 | Lost |
| 1182 | 951 | 79% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1062.5 vs 1048.8 has a 51.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).