Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (24 on the archive and 48 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 996 | 1211 | 22% | 2026-07-03 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 964 | 74% | 2025-09-24 | | Won |
| 904 | 1033 | 32% | 2023-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1002 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2015-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1139 | 61% | 2015-03-31 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2015-03-07 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1101 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | | Lost |
| 904 | 1088 | 26% | 2013-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1163 | 1136 | 54% | 2012-01-26 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | | Won |
| 992 | 1076 | 38% | 2009-01-01 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2008-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2008-07-09 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1089 | 57% | 2006-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2006-04-24 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1348 | 15% | 2006-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-04-01 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1122 | 59% | 2006-01-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2005-10-21 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2005-10-20 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1057.9 vs 1055.5 has a 50.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).