Gut Check
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21 (9 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 7
Defender wins (Italian): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 962 | 55% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 907 | 917 | 49% | 2025-12-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 2018-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 889 | 65% | 2011-07-14 | | Won |
| 695 | 1041 | 12% | 2009-10-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2009-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1158 | 33% | 2005-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1202 | 1000 | 76% | | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 991.1 vs 1012.2 has a 46.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).