Paper Army
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 77
Attacker wins (Greek): 56
Defender wins (Italian): 18
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Greek): 2
Defender wins (Italian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 2026-06-29 | Won | |
| 942 | 1059 | 34% | 2026-04-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2026-03-27 | Won | |
| 1059 | 942 | 66% | 2026-03-22 | A | Won |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-10-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2025-02-03 | Won | |
| 992 | 1015 | 47% | 2024-11-05 | Won | |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-08-21 | Won | |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-02-13 | Won | |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2024-01-18 | Won | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2023-11-04 | Won | |
| 1290 | 1000 | 84% | 2023-07-31 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2023-04-24 | A | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2023-02-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2023-02-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2023-01-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2023-01-23 | Lost | |
| 1018 | 1000 | 53% | 2022-11-30 | Won | |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-07-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2022-06-08 | Won | |
| 1187 | 989 | 76% | 2022-03-04 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-02-06 | Won | |
| 1143 | 1000 | 69% | 2021-08-24 | Won | |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-02-07 | Won | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-02-06 | Tied | |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2021-01-24 | Won | |
| 964 | 1140 | 27% | 2020-12-15 | Won | |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-08-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2020-07-05 | Lost | |
| 1172 | 1000 | 73% | 2020-05-20 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2020-01-11 | Lost | |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2019-12-14 | Won | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2019-12-13 | Won | |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2019-11-02 | Won | |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2019-07-06 | Won | |
| 1017 | 966 | 57% | 2018-06-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2017-10-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2017-05-25 | Tied | |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-05-20 | Won | |
| 926 | 881 | 56% | 2017-03-29 | Won | |
| 1085 | 894 | 75% | 2017-01-21 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2016-09-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2016-07-27 | Tied | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-08-16 | Won | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2015-08-14 | Won | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-07-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2014-10-07 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2014-04-04 | Won | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2014-02-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2013-01-06 | Lost | |
| 970 | 1031 | 41% | 2012-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2012-09-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1149 | 30% | 2012-06-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2011-04-17 | Lost | |
| 960 | 951 | 51% | 2011-04-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2011-04-09 | Lost | |
| 1039 | 1215 | 27% | 2010-07-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 2010-06-30 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2010-06-15 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 1215 | 39% | 2010-01-24 | Won | |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2009-10-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2009-07-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2009-07-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2009-07-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2009-07-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2009-05-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2009-05-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2009-04-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2009-01-17 | Won | |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2008-10-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2007-03-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2007-03-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2007-03-12 | Won | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-03-12 | Lost | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-03-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2007-02-17 | Won | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2006-07-16 | Won | |
| 832 | 1000 | 28% | 2006-01-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2005-11-27 | Won |
Attacking (58 wins) average ELOs: 1028.6 vs 1010.5 has a 52.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).