Gambit
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (19 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 31
Defender wins (German): 70
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1136 | 1114 | 53% | 2025-04-27 | Won |
| 1114 | 1136 | 47% | 2025-03-30 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1114 | 53% | 2025-02-16 | Won |
| 1133 | 983 | 70% | 2024-03-25 | Lost |
| 948 | 1133 | 26% | 2020-08-08 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1108 | 52% | 2017-06-01 | Lost |
| 851 | 1123 | 17% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 967 | 1077 | 35% | 2015-10-14 | Lost |
| 1002 | 998 | 51% | 2014-02-14 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1062 | 48% | 2010-01-01 | Won |
| 1234 | 1163 | 60% | 2007-09-22 | Won |
| 966 | 1035 | 40% | 2005-06-29 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2005-05-20 | Lost |
| 967 | 1034 | 40% | 2002-12-07 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1043 | 48% | 1999-12-27 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1170 | 43% | 1998-10-25 | Won |
| 1263 | 1290 | 46% | 1998-10-14 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1056.7 vs 1083.8 has a 46.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).