Recon in Force
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (27 on the archive and 112 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 73
Defender wins (Italian / German): 66
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1040 | 1020 | 53% | 2022-01-31 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-09-04 | | Won |
| 1010 | 992 | 53% | 2020-09-28 | | Won |
| 1289 | 1138 | 70% | 2020-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2019-04-20 | | Lost |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2019-01-27 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2018-02-23 | | Lost |
| 1001 | 1016 | 48% | 2017-02-11 | | Won |
| 1091 | 1218 | 32% | 2017-01-29 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1218 | 40% | 2017-01-29 | | Won |
| 968 | 1072 | 35% | 2017-01-17 | | Won |
| 943 | 1141 | 24% | 2014-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 928 | 70% | 2014-11-11 | | Won |
| 931 | 1073 | 31% | 2014-10-14 | | Lost |
| 928 | 1074 | 30% | 2014-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-09-15 | | Won |
| 951 | 1071 | 33% | 2013-12-08 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2004-11-05 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2001-10-28 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2001-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2001-06-04 | | Won |
| 1061 | 1000 | 59% | 1999-09-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 1998-12-21 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 1998-04-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1073 | 40% | 1994-05-30 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1040.8 vs 1053 has a 48.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).