Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 695 (162 on the archive and 533 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 347
Defender wins (German): 348
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-01-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1170 | 27% | 2024-09-21 | Lost | |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2024-02-25 | Won | |
| 1024 | 1039 | 48% | 2023-12-11 | Won | |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-10-16 | Won | |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-11-27 | Won | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-11-27 | Won | |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2022-11-05 | Won | |
| 833 | 1028 | 25% | 2022-10-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2022-06-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2022-06-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2022-06-10 | Won | |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2022-06-02 | Won | |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2022-04-07 | Won | |
| 1024 | 901 | 67% | 2022-01-15 | Won | |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-05-11 | Lost | |
| 978 | 1132 | 29% | 2021-02-27 | Lost | |
| 1033 | 924 | 65% | 2021-02-25 | Lost | |
| 944 | 1000 | 42% | 2021-01-04 | Won | |
| 967 | 1000 | 45% | 2020-10-02 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2020-08-13 | Lost | |
| 977 | 919 | 58% | 2020-07-29 | Won | |
| 1044 | 1098 | 42% | 2020-07-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2020-06-06 | Won | |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2020-05-15 | Lost | |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2020-05-15 | Lost | |
| 1010 | 1077 | 40% | 2020-04-23 | Won | |
| 1031 | 780 | 81% | 2020-03-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2020-03-01 | Lost | |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2020-02-10 | Won | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2019-11-17 | Won | |
| 1116 | 1068 | 57% | 2019-09-29 | Lost | |
| 999 | 950 | 57% | 2019-09-28 | Won | |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2019-09-04 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2019-09-04 | Lost | |
| 1138 | 916 | 78% | 2019-06-07 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2019-06-07 | Lost | |
| 989 | 966 | 53% | 2019-03-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2019-02-06 | Lost | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-01-29 | Lost | |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2018-11-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2018-10-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 2018-08-14 | Won | |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2018-08-10 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-07-08 | Lost | |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2018-06-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2018-06-16 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-06-10 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-01-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2018-01-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2017-12-28 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-12-26 | Won | |
| 893 | 930 | 45% | 2017-12-17 | Lost | |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2017-11-19 | Won | |
| 1080 | 1089 | 49% | 2017-07-12 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-04-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 919 | 61% | 2017-01-03 | Won | |
| 1041 | 1000 | 56% | 2016-12-22 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2016-06-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2016-03-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2016-02-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2016-01-02 | Lost | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2015-12-29 | Won | |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2015-12-05 | Won | |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2015-11-01 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2015-10-09 | Lost | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-09-12 | Won | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-08-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2015-08-18 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 786 | 85% | 2015-08-12 | Won | |
| 951 | 1088 | 31% | 2015-06-03 | Won | |
| 1000 | 891 | 65% | 2015-05-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2015-01-30 | Lost | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2014-10-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2014-10-25 | Lost | |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-07-12 | Lost | |
| 1126 | 1116 | 51% | 2014-06-16 | Won | |
| 983 | 1233 | 19% | 2014-04-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2014-04-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2014-03-20 | Lost | |
| 986 | 1030 | 44% | 2014-03-18 | Won | |
| 1030 | 986 | 56% | 2014-03-18 | Won | |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2014-02-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2014-02-04 | Won | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2013-10-23 | Won | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-09-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2013-07-12 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-07-12 | Lost | |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2013-06-15 | Lost | |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-02-25 | Lost | |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2013-01-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2012-12-21 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2012-08-19 | Won | |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2012-06-15 | Lost | |
| 1071 | 976 | 63% | 2012-05-19 | Won | |
| 841 | 976 | 31% | 2012-04-30 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2012-01-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2011-10-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2011-10-16 | Lost | |
| 985 | 1023 | 45% | 2011-09-24 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 2010-12-20 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2010-12-06 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2010-10-05 | Won | |
| 982 | 936 | 57% | 2010-10-01 | Won | |
| 1039 | 960 | 61% | 2010-09-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1062 | 41% | 2010-09-02 | Won | |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-09-02 | Won | |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-09-02 | Won | |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-09-02 | Won | |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-09-02 | Won | |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-09-02 | Won | |
| 1029 | 1020 | 51% | 2010-04-12 | Lost | |
| 1020 | 1029 | 49% | 2010-03-29 | Won | |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2010-03-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2010-01-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2009-11-11 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2009-10-18 | Lost | |
| 1003 | 1152 | 30% | 2009-10-04 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2009-09-01 | Won | |
| 896 | 1000 | 35% | 2009-08-14 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2009-08-02 | Lost | |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2009-06-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2009-06-24 | Lost | |
| 1044 | 1134 | 37% | 2009-06-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2009-04-18 | Won | |
| 1008 | 1056 | 43% | 2009-04-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2009-03-25 | Won | |
| 981 | 1219 | 20% | 2009-03-10 | Lost | |
| 1219 | 1127 | 63% | 2009-03-10 | Lost | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2008-07-16 | Lost | |
| 881 | 1013 | 32% | 2008-06-21 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2008-03-09 | Lost | |
| 1152 | 906 | 80% | 2008-03-01 | Lost | |
| 893 | 1167 | 17% | 2007-11-08 | Lost | |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2007-08-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2007-04-13 | Lost | |
| 996 | 1000 | 49% | 2006-10-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1096 | 37% | 2006-07-20 | Won | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2006-04-19 | Won | |
| 862 | 1000 | 31% | 2005-09-01 | Lost | |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2005-04-16 | Lost | |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2004-06-13 | Won | |
| 1096 | 1000 | 63% | 2004-04-20 | Lost | |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2004-04-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2004-01-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2004-01-15 | Won | |
| 1233 | 940 | 84% | 2004-01-10 | Won | |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2002-01-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 827 | 73% | 2001-02-03 | Won | |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2000-07-19 | Lost | |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2000-07-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 1999-02-01 | Won | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 1999-01-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 1998-09-06 | Won | |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 1998-06-21 | Won | |
| 1080 | 1127 | 43% | 1998-05-12 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 961 | 85% | 1998-03-29 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 1997-01-31 | Won | |
| 999 | 1233 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 1996-10-01 | Lost | |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 1995-11-04 | Won | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 1994-12-17 | Won |
Attacking (82 wins) average ELOs: 1035.1 vs 1017.3 has a 52.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).