The Hedgehog of Piepsk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 20
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1018 | 45% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2023-10-23 | Lost |
| 1238 | 1253 | 48% | 2023-10-04 | Won |
| 1001 | 1001 | 50% | 2023-07-17 | Lost |
| 1081 | 988 | 63% | 2023-05-22 | Won |
| 986 | 962 | 53% | 2023-03-10 | Won |
| 984 | 1009 | 46% | 2022-12-15 | Won |
| 1083 | 1228 | 30% | 2021-12-30 | Won |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 894 | 888 | 51% | 2020-12-01 | Won |
| 950 | 1083 | 32% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1030 | 62% | 2020-07-21 | Lost |
| 920 | 998 | 39% | 2020-06-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2020-04-12 | Lost |
| 988 | 1083 | 37% | 2019-11-09 | Lost |
| 954 | 1098 | 30% | 2019-04-24 | Lost |
| 964 | 1023 | 42% | 2019-02-11 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1001 | 52% | 2018-02-27 | Lost |
| 996 | 983 | 52% | 2017-09-09 | Lost |
| 964 | 1018 | 42% | 2017-03-10 | Lost |
| 955 | 1097 | 31% | 2015-05-19 | Won |
| 820 | 866 | 43% | 2014-10-19 | Lost |
| 1083 | 844 | 80% | 2013-08-26 | Lost |
| 967 | 983 | 48% | 2010-03-28 | Lost |
| 1085 | 973 | 66% | 2007-12-29 | Lost |
| 1233 | 1133 | 64% | 2007-04-19 | Lost |
| 943 | 832 | 65% | 2006-07-11 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1070 | 49% | 2000-06-05 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1060 | 51% | 2000-04-17 | Won |
| 1070 | 1060 | 51% | 2000-03-28 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1020.7 vs 1030.7 has a 48.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).