The Guards Counterattack
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 772 (214 on the archive and 558 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 383
Defender wins (German): 386
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2025-10-13 | Won | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-08-01 | Won | |
| 939 | 1000 | 41% | 2025-04-07 | Won | |
| 989 | 959 | 54% | 2025-02-20 | Won | |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2025-02-04 | Won | |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-11-03 | Lost | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-07-19 | Lost | |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-06-28 | Won | |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-06-28 | Lost | |
| 966 | 925 | 56% | 2024-06-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2023-12-30 | Lost | |
| 1258 | 1000 | 82% | 2023-12-16 | Won | |
| 999 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-11-25 | Lost | |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2023-11-02 | Lost | |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2023-10-06 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2023-09-07 | Won | |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-09-06 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1258 | 18% | 2023-08-17 | Lost | |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2023-07-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1050 | 43% | 2023-05-14 | Lost | |
| 1039 | 963 | 61% | 2023-04-23 | Won | |
| 890 | 907 | 48% | 2023-03-31 | Lost | |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2023-01-07 | Won | |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2023-01-07 | Won | |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-12-07 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2022-10-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2022-07-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2022-06-17 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2022-05-09 | Won | |
| 925 | 1018 | 37% | 2022-04-28 | Lost | |
| 925 | 1018 | 37% | 2022-04-28 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2022-04-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2022-02-26 | Won | |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2022-02-01 | Won | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2022-01-25 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 893 | 83% | 2021-12-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2021-12-04 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2021-11-03 | Won | |
| 1035 | 1066 | 46% | 2021-10-08 | Lost | |
| 982 | 970 | 52% | 2021-09-28 | Lost | |
| 964 | 1009 | 44% | 2021-05-17 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2021-05-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2021-04-01 | Won | |
| 924 | 1033 | 35% | 2021-03-09 | Lost | |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-02-22 | Won | |
| 966 | 994 | 46% | 2021-01-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 944 | 58% | 2021-01-08 | Lost | |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2020-11-05 | Lost | |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2020-11-05 | Lost | |
| 932 | 1000 | 40% | 2020-10-29 | Won | |
| 932 | 1000 | 40% | 2020-10-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2020-10-05 | Lost | |
| 1057 | 1000 | 58% | 2020-07-31 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2020-07-18 | Lost | |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | 2020-07-10 | Won | |
| 1052 | 1000 | 57% | 2020-06-20 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1216 | 22% | 2020-06-12 | Lost | |
| 985 | 1085 | 36% | 2020-06-03 | Lost | |
| 987 | 1085 | 36% | 2020-05-21 | Won | |
| 1110 | 1013 | 64% | 2020-04-11 | Won | |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2020-04-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2020-02-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2020-02-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2020-02-15 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2020-02-06 | Lost | |
| 1092 | 1090 | 50% | 2020-01-11 | Lost | |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2020-01-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2019-10-14 | Lost | |
| 1001 | 1000 | 50% | 2019-10-10 | Lost | |
| 919 | 977 | 42% | 2019-08-24 | Won | |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2019-07-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2019-07-02 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2019-06-26 | Won | |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2019-04-13 | Lost | |
| 989 | 966 | 53% | 2019-02-24 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2019-01-10 | Won | |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Lost | |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-08-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-07-24 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-06-24 | Won | |
| 1085 | 1035 | 57% | 2018-05-02 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1003 | 45% | 2018-04-20 | Won | |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2018-04-19 | Won | |
| 1258 | 1000 | 82% | 2018-04-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-02-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2018-01-12 | Lost | |
| 930 | 893 | 55% | 2018-01-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2017-12-23 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-12-21 | Won | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-11-21 | Won | |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2017-10-18 | Won | |
| 939 | 966 | 46% | 2017-10-15 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2017-10-10 | Won | |
| 962 | 966 | 49% | 2017-09-15 | Lost | |
| 948 | 904 | 56% | 2017-05-27 | Won | |
| 999 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-02-24 | Won | |
| 999 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-02-24 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-02-10 | Won | |
| 1015 | 919 | 63% | 2016-12-27 | Won | |
| 997 | 966 | 54% | 2016-12-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2016-12-22 | Lost | |
| 1100 | 992 | 65% | 2016-12-07 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1041 | 44% | 2016-12-06 | Won | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2016-11-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2016-11-12 | Lost | |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2016-10-29 | Won | |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2016-09-18 | Won | |
| 959 | 1174 | 22% | 2016-09-10 | Lost | |
| 1050 | 1348 | 15% | 2016-06-26 | Lost | |
| 926 | 1150 | 22% | 2016-01-17 | Lost | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-12-15 | Won | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-12-03 | Lost | |
| 987 | 926 | 59% | 2015-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2015-10-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-09-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-08-20 | Lost | |
| 1028 | 926 | 64% | 2015-08-10 | Won | |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2015-07-21 | Lost | |
| 1009 | 966 | 56% | 2015-05-31 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 944 | 68% | 2015-05-28 | Won | |
| 935 | 1085 | 30% | 2015-05-21 | Lost | |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2015-03-25 | Lost | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2015-03-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2015-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1044 | 786 | 82% | 2015-03-06 | Won | |
| 962 | 1000 | 45% | 2015-03-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2015-01-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2014-12-06 | Lost | |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2014-12-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2014-08-02 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2014-06-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2014-04-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 962 | 55% | 2014-01-14 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-12-22 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 983 | 64% | 2013-10-22 | Won | |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2013-09-01 | Lost | |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2013-07-21 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-06-25 | Won | |
| 1085 | 1038 | 57% | 2013-05-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2013-04-30 | Lost | |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2013-04-23 | Lost | |
| 1107 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-02-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2013-02-22 | Lost | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-11-05 | Tied | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2012-07-27 | Lost | |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2012-07-24 | Won | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2012-07-12 | Won | |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2012-05-22 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2012-05-07 | Won | |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2012-04-30 | Won | |
| 1093 | 870 | 78% | 2011-12-21 | Lost | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-11-19 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2011-11-19 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1141 | 34% | 2011-07-28 | Won | |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2011-06-04 | Won | |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2011-01-31 | Lost | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2010-09-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2010-07-10 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2010-06-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 2010-03-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2010-02-05 | Won | |
| 915 | 1000 | 38% | 2009-12-05 | Lost | |
| 1029 | 1020 | 51% | 2009-11-03 | Lost | |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2009-10-28 | Lost | |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2009-10-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1044 | 44% | 2009-09-13 | Won | |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2009-07-20 | Won | |
| 1103 | 1000 | 64% | 2009-06-01 | Lost | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2009-04-10 | Won | |
| 1022 | 1096 | 40% | 2009-02-24 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-02-07 | Won | |
| 1019 | 915 | 65% | 2009-01-21 | Won | |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2008-12-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 2008-11-26 | Lost | |
| 896 | 1000 | 35% | 2008-08-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2008-08-08 | Lost | |
| 1269 | 1035 | 79% | 2008-08-01 | Tied | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2008-06-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2008-06-10 | Won | |
| 1087 | 1152 | 41% | 2008-03-03 | Won | |
| 1174 | 1000 | 73% | 2008-01-22 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2007-12-27 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2007-10-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2007-07-31 | Lost | |
| 957 | 1008 | 43% | 2006-11-25 | Won | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-10-28 | Won | |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2006-09-12 | Won | |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-07-30 | Won | |
| 832 | 1000 | 28% | 2006-03-09 | Won | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2005-04-21 | Won | |
| 1134 | 1233 | 36% | 2004-05-11 | Lost | |
| 908 | 862 | 57% | 2004-02-26 | Won | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2003-07-28 | Won | |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2002-12-15 | Tied | |
| 827 | 1000 | 27% | 2002-03-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 827 | 73% | 2002-03-23 | Lost | |
| 827 | 997 | 27% | 2001-10-21 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 970 | 65% | 2001-09-25 | Won | |
| 827 | 1000 | 27% | 2001-07-21 | Won | |
| 827 | 1000 | 27% | 2001-07-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2000-06-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2000-03-26 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2000-02-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 1999-12-05 | Won | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 1998-06-19 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 1998-04-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 1998-04-16 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 1998-01-05 | Lost | |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 1997-12-24 | Won | |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 1997-11-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 1994-07-16 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 1994-07-16 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 1989-12-29 | Lost | |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | Won |
Attacking (108 wins) average ELOs: 1025.2 vs 1020.8 has a 50.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).