Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28
Attacker wins (German): 12
Defender wins (British / French): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 962 | 50% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 914 | 914 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 946 | 994 | 43% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1038 | 1023 | 52% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1038 | 1023 | 52% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 1013 | 1031 | 47% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 1126 | 1020 | 65% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1084 | 60% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1091 | 1145 | 42% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 994 | 954 | 56% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1310 | 759 | 96% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1190 | 994 | 76% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1223 | 1133 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1191 | 43% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1310 | 16% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1132 | 38% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1126 | 35% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 959 | 1020 | 41% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1126 | 35% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1237 | 1278 | 44% | 2005-03-26 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1237 | 22% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1064 | 64% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1255 | 32% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1051 | 59% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1178 | 1033 | 70% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1085.5 vs 1077.1 has a 51.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).