A Burnt Out Case
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 74 (17 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 42
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2025-11-19 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1053 | 44% | 2025-11-01 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1053 | 44% | 2025-11-01 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1175 | 27% | 2025-08-11 | Won |
| 1094 | 1092 | 50% | 2019-04-05 | Won |
| 939 | 1037 | 36% | 2018-07-04 | Won |
| 1060 | 1067 | 49% | 2017-07-04 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1060 | 51% | 2017-05-29 | Lost |
| 983 | 980 | 50% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 960 | 1126 | 28% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1060 | 46% | 2011-05-07 | Won |
| 1175 | 1047 | 68% | 2007-05-22 | Won |
| 1135 | 1233 | 36% | 2006-05-03 | Lost |
| 954 | 1079 | 33% | 2002-10-18 | Lost |
| 1141 | 777 | 89% | 2002-02-26 | Won |
| 1030 | 1048 | 47% | 2001-11-07 | Lost |
| 954 | 1079 | 33% | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1033.9 vs 1057.4 has a 46.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).