High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 149 (18 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 85
Defender wins (German): 64
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1154 | 1095 | 58% | 2024-05-13 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1126 | 34% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 1008 | 1025 | 48% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2014-05-13 | Won |
| 1102 | 982 | 67% | 2014-02-01 | Won |
| 944 | 983 | 44% | 2012-07-18 | Lost |
| 931 | 1008 | 39% | 2010-09-18 | Lost |
| 977 | 1098 | 33% | 2008-04-04 | Lost |
| 1011 | 962 | 57% | 2005-11-29 | Won |
| 1037 | 971 | 59% | 2005-09-25 | Won |
| 1046 | 1098 | 43% | 2005-04-30 | Lost |
| 923 | 1098 | 27% | 2003-04-25 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1098 | 44% | 2003-04-05 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2002-04-20 | Won |
| 1031 | 1092 | 41% | 2001-09-16 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1188 | 40% | 2001-05-05 | Lost |
| 1098 | 890 | 77% | 2000-12-02 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1030 | 56% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1021.6 vs 1037.2 has a 47.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).