High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 156 (24 on the archive and 132 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 65
Defender wins (German): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1018 | 47% | 2024-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2023-10-14 | | Won |
| 951 | 1088 | 31% | 2017-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2014-05-13 | | Won |
| 1106 | 1147 | 44% | 2014-02-01 | | Won |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-07-18 | | Lost |
| 907 | 959 | 43% | 2010-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2008-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2008-04-04 | | Lost |
| 996 | 980 | 52% | 2005-11-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2005-11-27 | | Won |
| 1036 | 954 | 62% | 2005-09-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2005-04-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2003-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1101 | 42% | 2003-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2002-04-20 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1074 | 51% | 2001-12-07 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2001-09-16 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2001-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2001-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2000-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2000-04-20 | | Won |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2000-04-11 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2000-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1034.4 vs 1024.3 has a 51.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).