High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 156 (24 on the archive and 132 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 65
Defender wins (German): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2024-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2023-10-14 | | Won |
| 968 | 1072 | 35% | 2017-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2014-05-13 | | Won |
| 1106 | 1133 | 46% | 2014-02-01 | | Won |
| 1065 | 1000 | 59% | 2012-07-18 | | Lost |
| 907 | 959 | 43% | 2010-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2008-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2008-04-04 | | Lost |
| 960 | 980 | 47% | 2005-11-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2005-11-27 | | Won |
| 1036 | 953 | 62% | 2005-09-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2005-04-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2003-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1101 | 42% | 2003-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2002-04-20 | | Won |
| 1112 | 1074 | 55% | 2001-12-07 | | Won |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2001-09-16 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2001-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2001-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2000-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2000-04-20 | | Won |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2000-04-11 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2000-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1036.6 vs 1025.7 has a 51.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).