Smashing the 3rd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (Russian): 11
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 756 | 1256 | 5% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2022-10-27 | Won |
| 1058 | 1117 | 42% | 2022-07-11 | Won |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-10-14 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1049 | 50% | 2019-08-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1075 | 48% | 2017-06-02 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2017-02-25 | Won |
| 935 | 1058 | 33% | 2016-10-25 | Lost |
| 984 | 1078 | 37% | 2016-08-19 | Won |
| 939 | 962 | 47% | 2014-08-19 | Won |
| 1107 | 1117 | 49% | 2013-03-03 | Won |
| 1046 | 1027 | 53% | 2012-07-15 | Lost |
| 985 | 951 | 55% | 2012-06-12 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2011-06-12 | Lost |
| 1236 | 1068 | 72% | 2010-01-22 | Won |
| 1283 | 1170 | 66% | 2009-10-07 | Lost |
| 1065 | 933 | 68% | 2007-03-18 | Won |
| 1041 | 998 | 56% | 2007-02-03 | Won |
| 1160 | 1173 | 48% | 2005-09-03 | Lost |
| 1287 | 1253 | 55% | 2005-01-01 | Won |
| 1069 | 1204 | 31% | 2004-03-24 | Won |
| 831 | 1204 | 10% | 2001-12-22 | Won |
| 1033 | 1041 | 49% | 2000-04-01 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | | Lost |
| 1217 | 1032 | 74% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1060.7 vs 1069.8 has a 48.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).