Smashing the 3rd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (Russian): 9
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 769 | 1255 | 6% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1008 | 52% | 2022-10-27 | Won |
| 1116 | 1111 | 51% | 2022-07-11 | Won |
| 1031 | 718 | 86% | 2020-10-14 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1044 | 50% | 2019-08-16 | Won |
| 1110 | 955 | 71% | 2017-06-02 | Won |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2017-02-25 | Won |
| 935 | 1116 | 26% | 2016-10-25 | Lost |
| 983 | 944 | 56% | 2016-08-19 | Won |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2014-08-19 | Won |
| 1114 | 982 | 68% | 2013-03-03 | Won |
| 1084 | 1069 | 52% | 2012-07-15 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2011-06-12 | Lost |
| 1141 | 978 | 72% | 2010-01-22 | Won |
| 994 | 939 | 58% | 2007-03-18 | Won |
| 1037 | 998 | 56% | 2007-02-03 | Won |
| 1149 | 1119 | 54% | 2005-09-03 | Lost |
| 1285 | 1310 | 46% | 2005-01-01 | Won |
| 1068 | 1129 | 41% | 2004-03-24 | Won |
| 844 | 1129 | 16% | 2001-12-22 | Won |
| 1032 | 1031 | 50% | 2000-04-01 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1000 | 72% | | Lost |
| 1214 | 1163 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1058.3 vs 1049.7 has a 51.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).