The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (American): 13
Defender wins (Italian): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1004 | 973 | 54% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1227 | 1253 | 46% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 1112 | 948 | 72% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 951 | 951 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1120 | 1223 | 36% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1070 | 959 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1219 | 21% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1179 | 983 | 76% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1070 | 937 | 68% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 939 | 76% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 948 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 999 | 1146 | 30% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1344 | 1070 | 83% | 2005-06-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 777 | 1141 | 11% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 924 | 1011 | 38% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1006 | 87% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 1094 | 1078 | 52% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1087 | 46% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1062 | 50% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1085 vs 1059 has a 53.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).