Urban Guerillas
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 433 (69 on the archive and 364 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 236
Defender wins (German (SS)): 197
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1131 | 1141 | 49% | 2024-09-22 | Lost |
| 718 | 1129 | 9% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1045 | 52% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 1057 | 812 | 80% | 2023-07-09 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1008 | 52% | 2022-12-28 | Lost |
| 1192 | 948 | 80% | 2022-08-23 | Won |
| 1182 | 1014 | 72% | 2021-03-17 | Won |
| 1051 | 1038 | 52% | 2021-01-06 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1149 | 54% | 2020-11-15 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1276 | 18% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1031 | 61% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1062 | 64% | 2020-06-16 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2020-05-19 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1298 | 25% | 2020-02-28 | Lost |
| 963 | 1214 | 19% | 2019-07-14 | Lost |
| 970 | 903 | 60% | 2018-10-08 | Lost |
| 946 | 933 | 52% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 949 | 903 | 57% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 1074 | 925 | 70% | 2017-10-10 | Won |
| 1113 | 1127 | 48% | 2017-04-04 | Won |
| 825 | 847 | 47% | 2016-02-02 | Won |
| 1045 | 1024 | 53% | 2015-10-08 | Lost |
| 969 | 921 | 57% | 2015-04-12 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1182 | 28% | 2015-03-04 | Won |
| 1038 | 911 | 68% | 2014-12-01 | Won |
| 1017 | 999 | 53% | 2014-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1081 | 36% | 2014-09-10 | Lost |
| 1081 | 983 | 64% | 2014-08-20 | Won |
| 1094 | 982 | 66% | 2014-07-23 | Won |
| 1068 | 1125 | 42% | 2013-10-16 | Won |
| 1142 | 939 | 76% | 2013-05-11 | Won |
| 951 | 954 | 50% | 2013-04-27 | Won |
| 1067 | 889 | 74% | 2012-12-31 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1025 | 49% | 2012-09-22 | Won |
| 1102 | 913 | 75% | 2012-08-13 | Won |
| 1046 | 1098 | 43% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1129 | 49% | 2011-08-01 | Won |
| 1098 | 1046 | 57% | 2011-06-01 | Won |
| 1011 | 1089 | 39% | 2011-02-11 | Won |
| 1008 | 1167 | 29% | 2010-04-22 | Lost |
| 913 | 1149 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1400 | 13% | 2008-09-06 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2008-09-04 | Lost |
| 978 | 1141 | 28% | 2007-08-16 | Won |
| 1077 | 1098 | 47% | 2006-06-26 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1400 | 19% | 2006-05-13 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1310 | 16% | 2006-04-14 | Won |
| 1310 | 1285 | 54% | 2006-04-13 | Won |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2006-02-10 | Won |
| 1121 | 1310 | 25% | 2006-01-10 | Won |
| 1032 | 1046 | 48% | 2005-11-11 | Won |
| 1098 | 981 | 66% | 2005-08-25 | Won |
| 1065 | 986 | 61% | 2005-05-07 | Lost |
| 994 | 996 | 50% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 994 | 1098 | 35% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 961 | 1228 | 18% | 2004-03-13 | Won |
| 921 | 931 | 49% | 2004-02-08 | Won |
| 847 | 986 | 31% | 2002-12-05 | Won |
| 1154 | 1031 | 67% | 2001-04-01 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1129 | 52% | 2000-12-10 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1031 | 56% | 2000-10-28 | Won |
| 1011 | 989 | 53% | 2000-10-28 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1074 | 45% | 2000-10-27 | Won |
| 1227 | 1119 | 65% | 2000-02-05 | Won |
| 994 | 790 | 76% | 1999-12-05 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1153 | 42% | 1999-03-21 | Lost |
| 980 | 1069 | 37% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1163 | 50% | | Lost |
| 1163 | 996 | 72% | | Won |
Attacking (35 wins) average ELOs: 1050.9 vs 1062.7 has a 48.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).