Shanghai in Flames
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26
Attacker wins (Japanese): 6
Defender wins (Chinese): 19
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Japanese): 1
Defender wins (Chinese): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 896 | 881 | 52% | 2024-09-19 | Won |
| 1014 | 962 | 57% | 2024-05-21 | Lost |
| 952 | 915 | 55% | 2024-01-04 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1025 | 48% | 2023-10-26 | Won |
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | 2023-07-05 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1074 | 45% | 2022-10-14 | Lost |
| 1011 | 994 | 52% | 2020-08-16 | Lost |
| 920 | 966 | 43% | 2020-01-22 | Lost |
| 956 | 1014 | 42% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2018-10-28 | Lost |
| 1009 | 988 | 53% | 2017-12-26 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1127 | 48% | 2017-09-05 | Lost |
| 931 | 1163 | 21% | 2017-07-04 | Lost |
| 847 | 868 | 47% | 2017-03-30 | Won |
| 1090 | 927 | 72% | 2014-12-28 | Won |
| 963 | 1149 | 26% | 2012-07-10 | Lost |
| 957 | 951 | 51% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 957 | 1013 | 42% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2008-05-14 | Won |
| 1011 | 962 | 57% | 2005-03-13 | Won |
| 939 | 1057 | 34% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 972 | 1069 | 36% | 1999-05-07 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1074 | 54% | 1999-02-01 | Won |
| 1119 | 977 | 69% | 1997-08-23 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1003.4 vs 1012.5 has a 48.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).