Last Defense Line
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 78 (19 on the archive and 59 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 38
Defender wins (French): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-02-19 | | Won |
| 1098 | 971 | 68% | 2025-11-19 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-10-16 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-09-24 | | Won |
| 968 | 1072 | 35% | 2022-08-14 | | Won |
| 1131 | 1000 | 68% | 2020-03-07 | | Won |
| 973 | 1091 | 34% | 2017-04-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2015-01-01 | | Lost |
| 938 | 1226 | 16% | 2014-10-12 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1101 | 34% | 2014-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2013-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2013-02-01 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1120 | 35% | 2004-01-02 | | Lost |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2003-10-19 | | Won |
| 1074 | 970 | 65% | 2002-07-05 | | Won |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2001-12-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 1999-02-06 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 1997-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1120 | 50% | 1997-02-21 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1005.2 vs 1057.5 has a 42.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).