First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (24 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (Free French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1031 | 1015 | 52% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 955 | 969 | 48% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 881 | 698 | 74% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 969 | 1087 | 34% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1226 | 1106 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1094 | 695 | 91% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 987 | 1263 | 17% | 2011-01-13 | Won |
| 908 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1269 | 21% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1034 | 66% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 1060 | 1043 | 52% | 2006-06-02 | Won |
| 939 | 1037 | 36% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1263 | 976 | 84% | 2001-11-25 | Won |
| 994 | 1048 | 42% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1054 | 1094 | 44% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1119 | 866 | 81% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1076 | 954 | 67% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 1076 | 41% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1078 | 833 | 80% | | Won |
| 1017 | 1078 | 41% | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1040.1 vs 1010.9 has a 54.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).