First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (24 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 49
Defender wins (Free French): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1075 | 964 | 65% | 2023-10-22 | | Won |
| 1075 | 964 | 65% | 2023-10-22 | | Won |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2020-07-31 | | Won |
| 955 | 997 | 44% | 2020-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 692 | 85% | 2020-06-27 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-03-09 | | Won |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2017-05-28 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1106 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | | Won |
| 1090 | 695 | 91% | 2011-03-12 | | Won |
| 987 | 1242 | 19% | 2011-01-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2010-06-16 | | Won |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1269 | 21% | 2006-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1214 | 1000 | 77% | 2006-06-14 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2006-06-02 | | Won |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2003-11-30 | | Won |
| 1242 | 976 | 82% | 2001-11-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 1999-05-28 | | Won |
| 1054 | 1056 | 50% | 1998-10-01 | | Won |
| 1156 | 866 | 84% | 1995-12-12 | | Won |
| 1159 | 956 | 76% | 1995-08-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 1995-07-21 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 832 | 81% | | | Won |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1054 vs 999.5 has a 57.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).