First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (24 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (Free French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1068 | 970 | 64% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 945 | 1026 | 39% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 882 | 756 | 67% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 981 | 1030 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 984 | 980 | 51% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1226 | 1105 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 694 | 89% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 987 | 1263 | 17% | 2011-01-13 | Won |
| 906 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1269 | 21% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1033 | 77% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 1068 | 1046 | 53% | 2006-06-02 | Won |
| 962 | 1037 | 39% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1263 | 976 | 84% | 2001-11-25 | Won |
| 1103 | 1041 | 59% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1012 | 53% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1173 | 866 | 85% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1198 | 953 | 80% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 1198 | 26% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1032 | 831 | 76% | | Won |
| 1018 | 1032 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1056.2 vs 1007.1 has a 57.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).