Mike Red
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (16 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 38
Defender wins (German): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1072 | 1000 | 60% | 2023-03-23 | | Won |
| 1054 | 1152 | 36% | 2022-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1048 | 1150 | 36% | 2021-06-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2021-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 986 | 58% | 2020-01-20 | | Won |
| 986 | 1045 | 42% | 2019-12-30 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1147 | 15% | 2017-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1145 | 1133 | 52% | 2015-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1022 | 1169 | 30% | 2011-08-14 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1077 | 63% | 2007-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2006-06-07 | | Won |
| 990 | 1141 | 30% | 2005-10-02 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 1998-01-08 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 1998-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1033 vs 1072.5 has a 44.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).