Mike Red
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (16 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 38
Defender wins (German): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-23 | Won |
| 1054 | 1152 | 36% | 2022-06-29 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1113 | 41% | 2021-06-02 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2021-03-28 | Lost |
| 969 | 995 | 46% | 2020-01-20 | Won |
| 995 | 969 | 54% | 2019-12-30 | Lost |
| 851 | 1123 | 17% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1129 | 50% | 2015-07-28 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1215 | 30% | 2011-08-14 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1097 | 54% | 2007-08-04 | Lost |
| 1144 | 909 | 79% | 2006-06-07 | Won |
| 1005 | 1140 | 31% | 2005-10-02 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 1998-01-08 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 1998-01-07 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1051 | 58% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1052.5 vs 1092.6 has a 44.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).