Mike Red
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (16 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 38
Defender wins (German): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1068 | 1055 | 52% | 2023-03-23 | Won |
| 1054 | 1152 | 36% | 2022-06-29 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1076 | 46% | 2021-06-02 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2021-03-28 | Lost |
| 1046 | 977 | 60% | 2020-01-20 | Won |
| 977 | 1046 | 40% | 2019-12-30 | Lost |
| 851 | 1123 | 17% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1146 | 47% | 2015-07-28 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1175 | 34% | 2011-08-14 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1070 | 56% | 2007-08-04 | Lost |
| 1144 | 939 | 76% | 2006-06-07 | Won |
| 990 | 1140 | 30% | 2005-10-02 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 1998-01-08 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 1998-01-07 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1077 | 54% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1054.9 vs 1098 has a 43.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).