Wintergewitter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 357 (49 on the archive and 308 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 177
Defender wins (Russian): 179
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 960 | 1002 | 44% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 960 | 56% | 2026-01-02 | Won |
| 1243 | 1194 | 57% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1170 | 1194 | 47% | 2025-01-27 | Won |
| 1057 | 1173 | 34% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2023-09-06 | Lost |
| 948 | 979 | 46% | 2021-12-14 | Won |
| 979 | 1131 | 29% | 2021-04-21 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1032 | 55% | 2021-02-02 | Lost |
| 984 | 945 | 56% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1187 | 61% | 2020-09-15 | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2020-06-21 | Won |
| 1035 | 1058 | 47% | 2019-05-17 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 954 | 1263 | 14% | 2017-01-21 | Lost |
| 933 | 1256 | 13% | 2016-12-18 | Won |
| 970 | 1068 | 36% | 2016-12-10 | Won |
| 1023 | 964 | 58% | 2016-08-27 | Won |
| 977 | 1117 | 31% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 1245 | 1072 | 73% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 891 | 942 | 43% | 2014-08-18 | Won |
| 1012 | 939 | 60% | 2013-10-11 | Won |
| 1071 | 951 | 67% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 1005 | 950 | 58% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
| 1096 | 1076 | 53% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2011-08-27 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-28 | Won |
| 1041 | 1027 | 52% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
| 1152 | 1125 | 54% | 2009-10-04 | Won |
| 1423 | 901 | 95% | 2006-06-16 | Won |
| 1175 | 1068 | 65% | 2006-04-15 | Won |
| 1287 | 1253 | 55% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1068 | 73% | 2005-08-14 | Won |
| 1051 | 1068 | 48% | 2005-08-04 | Won |
| 1095 | 1065 | 54% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 997 | 1065 | 40% | 2004-12-14 | Won |
| 1002 | 1073 | 40% | 2004-02-09 | Won |
| 1024 | 962 | 59% | 2003-11-11 | Won |
| 1000 | 1198 | 24% | 2002-06-22 | Lost |
| 909 | 1065 | 29% | 2001-12-29 | Won |
| 1068 | 1070 | 50% | 2001-04-18 | Won |
| 1070 | 1068 | 50% | 2001-03-31 | Won |
| 1070 | 1068 | 50% | 2001-02-19 | Won |
| 1154 | 1041 | 66% | 2000-03-19 | Won |
| 987 | 1068 | 39% | 2000-01-22 | Won |
| 1068 | 1234 | 28% | 1999-10-30 | Won |
| 1052 | 1263 | 23% | 1998-04-25 | Lost |
| 982 | 1173 | 25% | 1996-07-28 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (37 wins) average ELOs: 1061.5 vs 1075.3 has a 48.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).