Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (13 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 63
Defender wins (German): 76
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1141 | 1141 | 50% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1029 | 1110 | 39% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 931 | 954 | 47% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1131 | 1214 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 1014 | 1182 | 28% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 981 | 929 | 57% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1074 | 56% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1011 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 932 | 1011 | 39% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1038 | 958 | 61% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 1009 | 1069 | 41% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1129 | 52% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1048.6 vs 1059.1 has a 48.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).