Cream of the Crop
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (Russian): 27
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1040 | 968 | 60% | 2025-09-09 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1144 | 48% | 2025-08-16 | Lost |
| 995 | 1215 | 22% | 2024-12-08 | Lost |
| 1023 | 985 | 55% | 2024-11-22 | Won |
| 999 | 982 | 52% | 2024-03-09 | Won |
| 1027 | 1070 | 44% | 2023-11-30 | Won |
| 843 | 1133 | 16% | 2023-11-26 | Won |
| 1065 | 950 | 66% | 2023-08-23 | Won |
| 1021 | 988 | 55% | 2023-03-23 | Won |
| 1032 | 983 | 57% | 2022-12-16 | Won |
| 1070 | 1108 | 45% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 896 | 884 | 52% | 2021-11-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 884 | 70% | 2021-11-12 | Won |
| 1026 | 999 | 54% | 2021-01-05 | Won |
| 948 | 938 | 51% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1019 | 68% | 2020-08-22 | Won |
| 996 | 1122 | 33% | 2019-03-09 | Lost |
| 1064 | 970 | 63% | 2018-05-22 | Won |
| 943 | 1064 | 33% | 2017-10-28 | Lost |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2017-09-21 | Won |
| 943 | 901 | 56% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 891 | 1019 | 32% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1234 | 970 | 82% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 938 | 984 | 43% | 2015-11-29 | Won |
| 1158 | 984 | 73% | 2015-07-01 | Tied |
| 1040 | 1098 | 42% | 2015-05-02 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1006 | 68% | 2014-11-16 | Won |
| 1126 | 976 | 70% | 2014-09-27 | Won |
| 1015 | 1114 | 36% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-07-09 | Won |
| 1111 | 960 | 70% | 2012-04-27 | Won |
| 967 | 943 | 53% | 2012-03-31 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2010-02-19 | Lost |
| 941 | 1085 | 30% | 2009-01-22 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1233 | 38% | 2008-10-24 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1233 | 23% | 2008-09-04 | Lost |
| 972 | 1150 | 26% | 2006-03-26 | Lost |
| 1265 | 1264 | 50% | 2005-07-24 | Lost |
| 982 | 996 | 48% | 2005-03-10 | Lost |
| 1167 | 992 | 73% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
| 1140 | 999 | 69% | 2004-10-09 | Won |
| 1032 | 1058 | 46% | 2004-10-01 | Lost |
| 887 | 927 | 44% | 2004-03-15 | Won |
| 987 | 927 | 59% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 979 | 1140 | 28% | 2003-10-07 | Won |
| 985 | 1060 | 39% | 2002-03-10 | Won |
| 1140 | 1185 | 44% | 2001-05-25 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1023 | 63% | 2000-06-03 | Won |
| 1047 | 1162 | 34% | 2000-05-26 | Lost |
| 1019 | 815 | 76% | 1999-10-07 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1160 | 43% | 1999-10-03 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1072 | 52% | 1999-09-01 | Won |
| 1343 | 1027 | 86% | 1999-06-25 | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1043.7 vs 1034.7 has a 51.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).