Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 174 (26 on the archive and 148 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 83
Defender wins (German): 90
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 938 | 1011 | 40% | 2026-07-02 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1088 | 31% | 2023-09-10 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2023-04-24 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1028 | 68% | 2021-04-08 | | Won |
| 1258 | 1149 | 65% | 2020-12-06 | | Won |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-03-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1222 | 22% | 2017-07-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2017-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2016-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1079 | 1029 | 57% | 2016-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2016-02-03 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2012-07-01 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1126 | 29% | 2011-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2011-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2009-08-27 | | Won |
| 950 | 1074 | 33% | 2008-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 950 | 67% | 2008-02-27 | | Won |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2007-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2002-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1059 | 64% | 2002-06-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2000-10-01 | | Won |
| 1087 | 1074 | 52% | 1998-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 1998-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 1997-10-19 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 1997-10-18 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 1997-04-19 | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1052.6 vs 1065.5 has a 48.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).