The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (19 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 48
Defender wins (German): 44
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1161 | 949 | 77% | 2023-04-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2023-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 960 | 65% | 2023-04-03 | A | Won |
| 1177 | 1040 | 69% | 2023-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1202 | 33% | 2023-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1289 | 991 | 85% | 2023-03-05 | | Won |
| 994 | 1000 | 49% | 2020-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2020-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 921 | 64% | 2017-03-27 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2011-06-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2010-12-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2008-08-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 991 | 51% | 2006-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1164 | 48% | 2006-01-27 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2003-10-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2003-05-13 | | Won |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2003-03-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1060.1 vs 1038.5 has a 53.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).