The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (19 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 48
Defender wins (German): 44
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1161 | 949 | 77% | 2023-04-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2023-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 996 | 64% | 2023-04-03 | A | Won |
| 1182 | 1038 | 70% | 2023-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1200 | 33% | 2023-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1258 | 1037 | 78% | 2023-03-05 | | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2020-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2020-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 966 | 58% | 2017-03-27 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2011-06-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2010-12-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2008-08-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2006-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1159 | 50% | 2006-01-27 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2003-10-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2003-05-13 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2003-03-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1061.6 vs 1047.5 has a 52.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).