The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1134 | 949 | 74% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1185 | 1105 | 61% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1130 | 950 | 74% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1141 | 1063 | 61% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1194 | 36% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1256 | 1041 | 78% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 975 | 980 | 49% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1136 | 40% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1035 | 48% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1019 | 878 | 69% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1253 | 1213 | 56% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 980 | 1117 | 31% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1081 | 65% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1103 | 1041 | 59% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1224 | 1164 | 59% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1071 | 44% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2003-05-13 | Won |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2003-03-12 | Won |
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1089.7 vs 1048.6 has a 55.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).