First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (17 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 25
Defender wins (Japanese): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1061 | 45% | 2024-12-06 | | Won |
| 1026 | 1142 | 34% | 2024-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-02-25 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 1272 | 19% | 2024-01-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1005 | 49% | 2023-08-06 | | Won |
| 843 | 959 | 34% | 2023-05-08 | | Won |
| 874 | 1040 | 28% | 2022-12-29 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1040 | 42% | 2022-03-20 | | Lost |
| 836 | 1000 | 28% | 2020-07-28 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1102 | 41% | 2018-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1162 | 1000 | 72% | 2018-11-14 | | Won |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-11-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 871 | 68% | 2014-12-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2012-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 1021 | 77% | 2006-12-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1212 | 23% | 2002-11-21 | | Won |
| 1160 | 1040 | 67% | 2002-03-18 | | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1020.8 vs 1047.2 has a 46.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).