First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1077 | 906 | 73% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 933 | 1217 | 16% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1117 | 1132 | 48% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1097 | 955 | 69% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1098 | 66% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 943 | 909 | 55% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1077 | 36% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 969 | 906 | 59% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 969 | 1039 | 40% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1019 | 992 | 54% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1140 | 60% | 2007-10-01 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1101 | 64% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1019 | 1110 | 37% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1113 | 1118 | 49% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1021 | 1039 | 47% | | Won |
| 1039 | 833 | 77% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1061.2 vs 1041.6 has a 52.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).