The Red House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (21 on the archive and 71 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 49
Defender wins (German): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2024-02-28 | | Won |
| 982 | 1082 | 36% | 2022-04-30 | | Won |
| 969 | 1132 | 28% | 2021-12-11 | | Lost |
| 1093 | 954 | 69% | 2021-10-09 | | Won |
| 1015 | 961 | 58% | 2020-07-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2018-05-12 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2018-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2018-04-08 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1032 | 46% | 2017-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1181 | 983 | 76% | 2015-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1083 | 695 | 90% | 2013-05-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2013-02-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2011-12-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1175 | 27% | 2006-10-12 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-10-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2006-01-18 | | Won |
| 1175 | 1047 | 68% | 2006-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2004-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1076 | 1160 | 38% | 2002-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2001-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 1988-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1032.9 vs 1035 has a 49.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).