Bread Factory #2
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 372 (56 on the archive and 316 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 193
Defender wins (Russian): 179
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 996 | 941 | 58% | 2024-03-17 | Won |
| 1158 | 959 | 76% | 2024-02-25 | Won |
| 1014 | 938 | 61% | 2023-08-15 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1083 | 46% | 2023-05-26 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1191 | 47% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 970 | 877 | 63% | 2022-05-27 | Won |
| 877 | 970 | 37% | 2022-05-26 | Lost |
| 971 | 1158 | 25% | 2021-12-12 | Lost |
| 1015 | 944 | 60% | 2021-10-10 | Lost |
| 961 | 1009 | 43% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2020-06-22 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1011 | 50% | 2020-06-15 | Won |
| 882 | 1011 | 32% | 2020-04-07 | Lost |
| 920 | 1110 | 25% | 2019-11-26 | Lost |
| 931 | 931 | 50% | 2019-08-18 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1152 | 39% | 2019-05-06 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1100 | 46% | 2019-03-29 | Lost |
| 1100 | 931 | 73% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 1100 | 931 | 73% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 903 | 949 | 43% | 2018-06-05 | Won |
| 917 | 897 | 53% | 2017-10-22 | Lost |
| 1069 | 929 | 69% | 2017-10-04 | Won |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2017-07-17 | Won |
| 1100 | 1030 | 60% | 2017-06-06 | Won |
| 902 | 1074 | 27% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1009 | 46% | 2017-01-06 | Lost |
| 897 | 907 | 49% | 2016-07-14 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1008 | 52% | 2016-06-14 | Won |
| 1158 | 1154 | 51% | 2016-03-17 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-11-05 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1054 | 64% | 2015-06-26 | Won |
| 1058 | 1012 | 57% | 2014-06-08 | Won |
| 1008 | 697 | 86% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 968 | 984 | 48% | 2013-02-02 | Lost |
| 948 | 1029 | 39% | 2013-01-31 | Lost |
| 968 | 983 | 48% | 2013-01-08 | Won |
| 1014 | 1182 | 28% | 2012-11-06 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1227 | 30% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1143 | 38% | 2012-10-02 | Lost |
| 1011 | 867 | 70% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2009-04-15 | Lost |
| 1045 | 934 | 65% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1228 | 1003 | 79% | 2007-08-27 | Won |
| 1014 | 1141 | 32% | 2005-10-12 | Won |
| 1081 | 994 | 62% | 2005-03-31 | Won |
| 1098 | 1097 | 50% | 2005-03-22 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1098 | 54% | 2005-03-03 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2003-02-04 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1035 | 59% | 2002-08-03 | Won |
| 994 | 1002 | 49% | 1998-04-26 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 1997-10-30 | Won |
| 1119 | 981 | 69% | 1996-04-18 | Won |
| 1110 | 1129 | 47% | 1994-11-26 | Lost |
| 952 | 944 | 51% | 1992-12-30 | Lost |
Attacking (27 wins) average ELOs: 1033.6 vs 1024.1 has a 51.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).