Bread Factory #2
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 386 (69 on the archive and 317 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 184
Defender wins (Russian): 202
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2026-02-14 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1056 | 44% | 2025-10-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 865 | 69% | 2024-12-27 | | Won |
| 989 | 841 | 70% | 2024-03-17 | | Won |
| 1092 | 999 | 63% | 2024-02-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2023-08-15 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2023-05-26 | | Lost |
| 1182 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-01-08 | | Won |
| 1028 | 833 | 75% | 2022-05-27 | | Won |
| 833 | 1028 | 25% | 2022-05-26 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1132 | 28% | 2022-03-13 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1132 | 28% | 2022-03-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2021-12-12 | | Lost |
| 1149 | 984 | 72% | 2021-10-10 | | Lost |
| 974 | 932 | 56% | 2020-11-07 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2020-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2020-06-15 | | Won |
| 967 | 1015 | 43% | 2020-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2019-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2019-10-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2019-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1234 | 29% | 2019-05-06 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1116 | 45% | 2019-03-29 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 966 | 71% | 2019-02-02 | | Won |
| 1120 | 966 | 71% | 2019-02-02 | | Won |
| 1143 | 1040 | 64% | 2018-11-03 | | Won |
| 904 | 948 | 44% | 2018-06-05 | | Won |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2017-10-22 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1011 | 56% | 2017-10-04 | | Won |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2017-07-17 | | Won |
| 1116 | 1035 | 61% | 2017-06-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2017-05-06 | | Won |
| 908 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-02-03 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2017-01-06 | | Lost |
| 898 | 1000 | 36% | 2016-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2016-06-14 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2016-03-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2015-06-26 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1013 | 54% | 2014-06-08 | | Won |
| 1090 | 695 | 91% | 2013-03-09 | | Won |
| 987 | 959 | 54% | 2013-02-02 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1008 | 41% | 2013-01-31 | | Lost |
| 987 | 983 | 51% | 2013-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2012-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1253 | 22% | 2012-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1170 | 35% | 2012-10-02 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2011-03-11 | | Won |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2009-04-15 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 933 | 67% | 2008-08-03 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1151 | 50% | 2008-05-23 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2007-08-27 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1039 | 56% | 2006-05-04 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1134 | 36% | 2005-04-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2005-03-31 | | Won |
| 1096 | 1140 | 44% | 2005-03-22 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2005-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1096 | 55% | 2005-03-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2003-02-04 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2002-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1096 | 1000 | 63% | 2002-08-03 | | Won |
| 899 | 1141 | 20% | 2001-12-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2001-09-24 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1002 | 55% | 1998-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 1997-10-30 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 1996-04-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 1994-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 1992-12-30 | | Lost |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1038 vs 1033.3 has a 50.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).