Counterattack on the Vistula
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (30 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 34
Defender wins (Russian): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1122 | 1112 | 51% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1027 | 1015 | 52% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 965 | 1013 | 43% | 2021-05-03 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1175 | 34% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1226 | 23% | 2020-08-21 | Won |
| 931 | 951 | 47% | 2020-08-17 | Won |
| 1001 | 1173 | 27% | 2020-03-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1022 | 48% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 944 | 54% | 2018-04-07 | Won |
| 1165 | 1154 | 52% | 2018-02-26 | Lost |
| 1073 | 840 | 79% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1158 | 950 | 77% | 2017-07-27 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2017-07-16 | Lost |
| 1148 | 958 | 75% | 2017-06-27 | Won |
| 856 | 879 | 47% | 2016-10-25 | Won |
| 915 | 1038 | 33% | 2016-06-18 | Lost |
| 918 | 1078 | 28% | 2015-01-10 | Lost |
| 984 | 1158 | 27% | 2015-01-06 | Lost |
| 1158 | 950 | 77% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 984 | 1158 | 27% | 2014-01-01 | Won |
| 1049 | 963 | 62% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1009 | 57% | 2011-06-17 | Won |
| 1073 | 1083 | 49% | 2009-04-07 | Lost |
| 945 | 1117 | 27% | 2007-04-26 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1419 | 8% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 996 | 1419 | 8% | 2006-07-16 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1105 | 60% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1118 | 966 | 71% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1038.4 vs 1066.6 has a 45.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).