The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2024-12-24 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2023-05-19 | | Won |
| 904 | 1045 | 31% | 2023-03-02 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2022-01-23 | | Won |
| 1063 | 949 | 66% | 2021-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2021-11-27 | | Won |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2021-11-19 | | Won |
| 1020 | 1000 | 53% | 2021-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1218 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2021-05-01 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2021-04-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2021-01-31 | | Won |
| 1084 | 957 | 68% | 2020-11-16 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 1116 | 60% | 2020-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2020-02-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 2018-10-26 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2015-08-31 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1185 | 27% | 2014-11-11 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2013-12-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2013-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2011-03-07 | | Lost |
| 1144 | 881 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1219 | 40% | 2005-04-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 1994-12-18 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1029.6 vs 1046.2 has a 47.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).