The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1127 | 1127 | 50% | 2024-12-24 | Lost |
| 933 | 994 | 41% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 908 | 1014 | 35% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 969 | 1013 | 44% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1112 | 939 | 73% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1133 | 964 | 73% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1072 | 1019 | 58% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 975 | 964 | 52% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1218 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 953 | 58% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1041 | 1032 | 51% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1054 | 1041 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1028 | 1016 | 52% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1310 | 983 | 87% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 994 | 954 | 56% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1112 | 1145 | 45% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 1218 | 20% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1310 | 16% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1026 | 58% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 882 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 977 | 1303 | 13% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1021 | 45% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1044.4 vs 1048.8 has a 49.36% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).