Art Nouveau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 106 (26 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 43
Defender wins (Belgian): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 808 | 1183 | 10% | 2023-07-30 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-07-14 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2023-07-01 | | Lost |
| 1072 | 968 | 65% | 2020-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2016-04-17 | | Lost |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2015-04-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1230 | 21% | 2015-01-03 | | Won |
| 1058 | 876 | 74% | 2012-11-03 | | Lost |
| 915 | 1000 | 38% | 2008-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1022 | 1169 | 30% | 2007-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2007-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2006-08-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 832 | 72% | 2006-08-10 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2004-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 991 | 51% | 2002-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 2000-11-05 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2000-07-01 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1141 | 33% | 1999-10-09 | | Won |
| 1003 | 1101 | 36% | 1999-04-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 1999-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 1999-03-20 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 1999-03-07 | | Lost |
| 927 | 1000 | 40% | 1998-12-09 | | Won |
| 1092 | 1183 | 37% | 1998-12-01 | | Won |
| 1059 | 900 | 71% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1022.7 vs 1040.5 has a 47.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).