Art Nouveau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 106 (26 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 43
Defender wins (Belgian): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 786 | 1167 | 10% | 2023-07-30 | | Lost |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-07-14 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2023-07-01 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2020-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2016-04-17 | | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2015-04-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2015-01-03 | | Won |
| 1080 | 876 | 76% | 2012-11-03 | | Lost |
| 915 | 1000 | 38% | 2008-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1201 | 27% | 2007-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2007-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2006-08-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 832 | 72% | 2006-08-10 | | Won |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2004-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2002-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 2000-11-05 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2000-07-01 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1141 | 35% | 1999-10-09 | | Won |
| 1003 | 1101 | 36% | 1999-04-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 1999-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 1999-03-20 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 1999-03-07 | | Lost |
| 926 | 1000 | 40% | 1998-12-09 | | Won |
| 1073 | 1167 | 37% | 1998-12-01 | | Won |
| 1078 | 900 | 74% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1023 vs 1044 has a 46.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).