Art Nouveau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 106 (26 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 43
Defender wins (Belgian): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 786 | 1107 | 14% | 2023-07-30 | Lost |
| 948 | 1097 | 30% | 2023-07-14 | Lost |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 1097 | 954 | 69% | 2020-08-04 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-04-17 | Lost |
| 909 | 1037 | 32% | 2015-04-20 | Won |
| 1083 | 1215 | 32% | 2015-01-03 | Won |
| 1080 | 875 | 76% | 2012-11-03 | Lost |
| 919 | 1097 | 26% | 2008-11-13 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1230 | 28% | 2007-10-26 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1071 | 50% | 2007-10-19 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1086 | 54% | 2006-08-26 | Won |
| 892 | 832 | 59% | 2006-08-10 | Won |
| 1126 | 953 | 73% | 2004-05-15 | Won |
| 1031 | 1021 | 51% | 2002-02-08 | Lost |
| 1112 | 959 | 71% | 2000-11-05 | Won |
| 1113 | 1048 | 59% | 2000-07-01 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1140 | 35% | 1999-10-09 | Won |
| 1002 | 1101 | 36% | 1999-04-30 | Won |
| 1150 | 1263 | 34% | 1999-04-22 | Lost |
| 1101 | 994 | 65% | 1999-03-20 | Won |
| 1263 | 1292 | 46% | 1999-03-07 | Lost |
| 925 | 1046 | 33% | 1998-12-09 | Won |
| 1073 | 1107 | 45% | 1998-12-01 | Won |
| 1097 | 900 | 76% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1091 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1044.8 vs 1067.2 has a 46.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).