Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 151 (28 on the archive and 123 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 68
Defender wins (Polish): 83
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1082 | 1131 | 43% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 956 | 1014 | 42% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1151 | 970 | 74% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 882 | 797 | 62% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1255 | 1015 | 80% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1008 | 52% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1006 | 65% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 927 | 1032 | 35% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 939 | 1142 | 24% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1255 | 1026 | 79% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 1069 | 1009 | 59% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 1033 | 1120 | 38% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 867 | 1011 | 30% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1276 | 1050 | 79% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1046 | 1045 | 50% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1045 | 1129 | 38% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1069 | 36% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 1075 | 1031 | 56% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 1082 | 1074 | 51% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 1188 | 1119 | 60% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 1072 | 1005 | 60% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1064.3 vs 1047.7 has a 52.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).