An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (25 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 74
Defender wins (German): 48
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1014 | 956 | 58% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
| 1151 | 970 | 74% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
| 919 | 888 | 54% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2021-01-18 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1025 | 48% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 980 | 964 | 52% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 857 | 1140 | 16% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1034 | 1116 | 38% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1255 | 961 | 84% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1054 | 1116 | 41% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
| 1084 | 1223 | 31% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
| 1030 | 1038 | 49% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1037 | 66% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1125 | 49% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
| 1228 | 1180 | 57% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 928 | 1030 | 36% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1113 | 38% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1129 | 965 | 72% | 2001-03-01 | Won |
| 1075 | 1031 | 56% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 1069 | 872 | 76% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
| 1119 | 1227 | 35% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1045.4 vs 1036.6 has a 51.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).