An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 135 (36 on the archive and 100 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 81
Defender wins (German): 52
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Polish): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 872 | 1164 | 16% | 2026-08-18 | | Lost |
| 818 | 1056 | 20% | 2026-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2025-10-17 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2025-02-22 | A | Won |
| 1056 | 818 | 80% | 2025-01-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2022-12-03 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2022-01-27 | | Tied |
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-01-18 | | Won |
| 1102 | 872 | 79% | 2021-07-19 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-03-30 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2021-02-08 | | Lost |
| 957 | 1084 | 32% | 2020-07-20 | | Won |
| 994 | 1000 | 49% | 2020-05-24 | | Won |
| 850 | 1147 | 15% | 2019-02-23 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1134 | 36% | 2018-12-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2018-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1298 | 1000 | 85% | 2016-06-18 | | Won |
| 1079 | 1046 | 55% | 2016-03-30 | | Won |
| 1053 | 1134 | 39% | 2014-05-14 | | Won |
| 962 | 1000 | 45% | 2014-02-20 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1226 | 22% | 2013-10-07 | | Won |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2013-09-08 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1005 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2013-01-16 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2011-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2011-09-23 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1163 | 46% | 2011-08-09 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2009-04-05 | | Won |
| 929 | 1035 | 35% | 2006-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2004-10-17 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1072 | 61% | 2001-03-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2000-10-06 | | Won |
| 1141 | 970 | 73% | 1999-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 1999-07-05 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1000 | 61% | 1998-12-12 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 1998-11-07 | | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1024.2 vs 1039.5 has a 47.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).