Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (73 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 49
Defender wins (French): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-04-01 | Won | |
| 1049 | 1028 | 53% | 2025-11-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2025-11-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2021-12-15 | Lost | |
| 1209 | 1000 | 77% | 2021-06-16 | Won | |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-01-23 | Won | |
| 1028 | 1017 | 52% | 2020-11-13 | Lost | |
| 974 | 932 | 56% | 2020-11-10 | Lost | |
| 967 | 904 | 59% | 2020-10-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2020-04-10 | Lost | |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2020-03-10 | Won | |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-03-07 | Won | |
| 961 | 996 | 45% | 2020-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 987 | 64% | 2020-02-13 | Won | |
| 1147 | 1034 | 66% | 2019-09-08 | Won | |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2017-12-15 | Won | |
| 856 | 1000 | 30% | 2017-11-17 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 1116 | 70% | 2017-11-11 | Lost | |
| 1055 | 1275 | 22% | 2017-08-12 | Lost | |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1030 | 41% | 2016-05-01 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 962 | 73% | 2015-11-11 | Won | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2015-10-20 | Won | |
| 1055 | 959 | 63% | 2014-12-12 | Lost | |
| 1044 | 1134 | 37% | 2014-11-07 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 1187 | 47% | 2014-11-06 | Lost | |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2014-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2014-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1258 | 27% | 2014-09-02 | Won | |
| 1090 | 951 | 69% | 2014-07-05 | Won | |
| 1067 | 1101 | 45% | 2013-10-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2013-09-09 | Lost | |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-08-26 | Won | |
| 862 | 1071 | 23% | 2013-06-09 | Lost | |
| 891 | 1071 | 26% | 2013-06-09 | Lost | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-02-18 | Won | |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2012-12-30 | Lost | |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2012-10-03 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1023 | 49% | 2011-07-08 | Lost | |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2010-10-10 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2010-08-30 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2010-06-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2010-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2010-03-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2010-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1044 | 44% | 2010-03-06 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won | |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2010-01-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2009-11-13 | Won | |
| 896 | 1000 | 35% | 2009-06-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2009-02-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2009-01-30 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2009-01-11 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 915 | 62% | 2008-09-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2007-04-11 | Lost | |
| 1174 | 1055 | 66% | 2006-10-15 | Lost | |
| 1219 | 1435 | 22% | 2006-09-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2006-04-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2006-02-13 | Lost | |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2004-07-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2001-09-29 | Won | |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2001-04-27 | Won | |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2000-12-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2000-03-21 | Won | |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2000-02-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 1998-11-14 | Won | |
| 1055 | 1145 | 37% | 1998-05-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 1998-04-24 | Won | |
| 1263 | 915 | 88% | 1998-04-11 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 1997-01-05 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 1102 | 55% | 1995-08-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1042.4 vs 1041.2 has a 50.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).