Strangers in a Strange Land
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 319 (62 on the archive and 257 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 170
Defender wins (German): 148
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-01-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2025-09-21 | | Lost |
| 902 | 1000 | 36% | 2024-11-17 | | Lost |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2024-04-21 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2022-08-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1209 | 23% | 2021-06-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2020-10-05 | | Won |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2020-09-08 | | Lost |
| 904 | 1102 | 24% | 2020-08-12 | | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2020-08-03 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | 2020-05-09 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1195 | 1167 | 54% | 2020-03-07 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1044 | 58% | 2020-03-07 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2020-03-05 | | Won |
| 951 | 1088 | 31% | 2020-02-28 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2018-09-05 | | Lost |
| 1020 | 1000 | 53% | 2017-11-23 | | Won |
| 898 | 919 | 47% | 2017-08-08 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1038 | 50% | 2017-05-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2017-03-21 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2017-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2016-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1174 | 1258 | 38% | 2015-11-16 | | Won |
| 1147 | 962 | 74% | 2015-06-14 | | Won |
| 996 | 1000 | 49% | 2015-03-07 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 998 | 55% | 2014-08-02 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2014-06-01 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2014-03-04 | | Won |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2014-03-04 | | Won |
| 1174 | 1252 | 39% | 2012-10-07 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-09-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2012-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1220 | 945 | 83% | 2012-08-04 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2011-10-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2010-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2009-11-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2009-09-29 | | Won |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2009-02-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2008-11-01 | | Won |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2008-01-21 | | Won |
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2006-02-10 | | Lost |
| 907 | 994 | 38% | 2004-09-19 | | Won |
| 1161 | 1055 | 65% | 2004-09-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2004-07-25 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2003-03-15 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1046 | 49% | 2002-10-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 827 | 73% | 2002-06-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2001-05-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 2001-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2001-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2000-08-26 | | Won |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 1999-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 1999-07-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 1999-06-25 | | Won |
| 886 | 1035 | 30% | 1999-01-23 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 919 | 92% | 1998-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 866 | 82% | 1995-11-08 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 1993-10-01 | | Won |
| 1055 | 956 | 64% | 1993-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
Attacking (34 wins) average ELOs: 1042.7 vs 1032 has a 51.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).